\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
Event: on April 6, the company announced that the application for marketing license of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine was accepted, and the acceptance number was cxss2200036.
Herpes zoster vaccine: 10 billion varieties, which is expected to be the first domestic one to be listed. Herpes zoster vaccine is the largest single vaccine in the world. GSK’s live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine will sell for 2.5 billion US dollars in 2020. In the context of deepening aging, with the increase of affordability and vaccination rate, we expect the market scale of herpes zoster vaccine in China to reach 10.6 billion in 2030. At present, only GSK is available in China in 2020. Baike is expected to be listed in 2022, which is expected to win the first place among domestic manufacturers, with sales of ~ 3.4 billion in 2026.
There are only two kinds of blister vaccine in the world and only one in China, so the competition pattern is good. At present, there are two herpes zoster vaccines on the market worldwide, Zostavax of MSD and shinrix of GlaxoSmithKline. Zostavax2006, a live attenuated vaccine with blisters produced by methadone, was approved for marketing and is suitable for people over 50 years old; GSK’s recombinant herpes zoster vaccine, shingrix2017, was approved for market. It quickly replaced MSD’s live attenuated herpes Zostavax vaccine and became a heavyweight vaccine with sales of US $2.5 billion. In June 2020, GSK’s shingrix began to be sold in China at a price of 1600 yuan / piece. It needs to be inoculated with two doses. In 2020, the batch issuance volume will reach 1.65 million pieces.
Baike has the fastest development progress and is expected to enjoy an exclusive period of about 3-5 years in domestic vaccines. The pipeline under development of blister vaccines in China is mainly divided into two categories: live attenuated blister vaccines and recombinant blister vaccines. Among the live attenuated vaccines with blisters, Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) has made the fastest progress and officially applied for production. It is expected to be approved for listing in 2022, Changchun Changsheng goes bankrupt, Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) has been actively suspended, and the rest are in phase I or before. In the recombinant blister vaccine, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) and Yidao biological are in clinical phase I.
There are many bright spots, with a forward-looking layout of multiple heavy varieties. 1) Recovery production of rabies vaccine + anti rabies monoclonal antibody to build a full prevention matrix; 2) Component breakthrough: the upgrading trend is irresistible, and there are structural opportunities; 3) In the long run, we will lay out frontier / heavyweight varieties such as mumps series, RSV, general influenza and therapeutic vaccines, constantly enrich the depth and thickness of R & D pipelines, and build a deep moat.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 2.052 billion, RMB 2.569 billion and RMB 3.205 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 70.70%, 25.18% and 24.76%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 591 million yuan, 730 million yuan and 902 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 142.58%, 23.54% and 23.60%. As the leader of chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume large-scale nasal spray influenza. Herpes zoster is about to be listed, contributing a considerable increment and maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is lower than the expected risk, the sales of vaccine products do not meet the expected risk, and the risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; Covid-19 virus mutation leads to the risk of vaccine failure; The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
