\u3000\u30 Beijing Jingyeda Technology Co.Ltd(003005) 58 Betta Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(300558) )
Events. The company announced the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the operating revenue was 2.246 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 383 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.83%; Deduct non net profit of 346 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.52%;
In 2021q4, the operating revenue was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.83%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60.86%; The non net profit deducted was 19 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 70.16%.
Viewpoint: the apparent growth rate is affected by the base and incentive costs. The company has endogenous and steady growth, and 2022 is worth looking forward to.
\u3000\u30001. The net profit attributable to the parent company was affected by the base number of last year, and the apparent growth rate decreased; Equity incentive fees affect the deduction of non apparent growth rate. In 2020, the non recurring profit and loss was 272 million yuan, which was mainly the investment income from the sale of the equity of Zhejiang Beida Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., resulting in a high net profit base attributable to the parent and a decline in the apparent growth rate in 2021. If the equity incentive fee is added back, the deduction of non net profit will reach 411 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 23.05%, and the operation of the company is still growing steadily.
\u3000\u30002. Ektinib has obvious clinical differentiation advantages, with cumulative sales of more than 10 billion yuan. In 2021, ektinib sold 1909400 boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 23.75%. The cumulative sales exceeded 10 billion, and it is still in rapid volume. Ektinib has obvious clinical differentiation advantages. It is the preferred recommended drug for the treatment of brain metastasis in patients with NSCLC, which proves the curative effect in patients with 21-l858r mutation. Postoperative adjuvant treatment has been approved and included in medical insurance, which further opens the space for medication while consolidating the existing market.
\u3000\u30003. The first domestic ALK inhibitor, ensatinib, was successfully listed and is expected to replicate the successful case of exetinib. Ensatinib has been included in the medical insurance through negotiation, and the first-line indications were approved to be listed in March 2022. In 2021, the tribute achieved a sales volume of 150 million yuan. At the same time, the first-line global multi center phase III clinical of ensatinib is continuously promoted, which is expected to become a BIC product and open the overseas market with clinical advantages. In addition, the company's first macromolecular product beianting (bevacizumab analogue) has also been approved for listing with multiple indications.
\u3000\u30004. The company continues to promote clinical research, and a number of R & D achievements in 2022 are worth looking forward to. According to the research and development progress:
Nsatinib first-line overseas NDA (the company's first international new drug, first-line clinical data, best in class, is expected to significantly prolong the medication time, and the total sales peak outside China is expected to reach 3 billion yuan, providing performance increment for the company);
0316 the second-line has been reported for production, and the first-line treatment has entered phase II / III clinical treatment;
PD-1 and CTLA-4 China clinical promotion (PD-1 clinical acceptance, listing progress is expected to accelerate);
082 renal cell carcinoma has been reported to NDA, etc.
Subsequently, enrich frontier pipelines and promote clinical: the company is developing more than 40 new drug projects, bpi-361175
First clinical approval in the United States, 11 candidate drugs / indications ind.
Profit forecast: the company is a scarce innovative drug target for a shares. Ektinib continues to contribute stable cash flow, and ensatinib is expected to increase rapidly. The subsequent R & D pipeline echelon has been gradually formed. The R & D team has overseas R & D experience + excellent R & D strength, and the sales team has strong strength. It is optimistic about the long-term development of the company and maintains the "buy" rating. According to the latest annual report, we adjusted the profit forecast. We expect the company's operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.930 billion yuan, 3.819 billion yuan and 5.548 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.4%, 30.4% and 45.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507 million yuan, 676 million yuan and 1004 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, 33.4% and 48.5%; The corresponding PE is 44 times, 33 times and 22 times respectively.
Risk warning: the product volume is lower than expected; The promotion of innovative drug research and development is lower than expected; Risk of failure in research and development of innovative drugs.
