\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 61 Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) )
Performance review
On April 6, the company announced that the State Food and Drug Administration issued a new package of polyethylene glycol recombinant human growth hormone injection (54iu / 9.0mg / 1.0ml / bottle) issued by kinsay pharmaceutical to increase the form of cartridge bottle, and the recombinant human growth hormone injection (30iu / 10mg / 3ml / bottle) added the indication of short stature caused by small for gestational age (SGA). The application for marketing license of Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine, a holding subsidiary of the company, was accepted.
Business analysis
The experience of long-acting growth hormone medication is further improved, and the promotion is expected to speed up in the future. In addition to the therapeutic advantages of short-acting water acupuncture, long-acting growth hormone can also reduce the administration frequency. The issuance of the approval certificate for the new packaging form of the company's long-acting growth hormone cartridge indicates that the long-acting dosage form can officially adopt the electronic injection method, which is helpful to further improve the compliance of patients. The company takes the lead in the development of long-acting dosage forms. At present, it is exclusive in China, and the proportion of long-acting revenue is expected to further increase in the future.
The indications of water acupuncture continue to improve, and the drug population continues to expand. The company's recombinant human growth hormone injection 30iu added the indications of children's dwarfism caused by SGA. In addition, the indications of the company's growth hormone products for the treatment of idiopathic dwarfism (ISS), Prader Willi syndrome (PWS) and other indications have also been included in the priority review by the State Food and drug administration. The indications are expected to continue to expand in the future to benefit more patients.
Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) heavy variety herpes zoster vaccine listing application was accepted, and the growth momentum continued to consolidate. The clinical pain of herpes zoster seriously affects the quality of life. Herpes zoster vaccine can effectively prevent related diseases. At present, there is only one GSK vaccine and one GSK vaccine in China Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) is in the leading progress in the research and development of herpes zoster vaccine in China. If it is successfully approved to be listed in the future, it is expected to contribute greater performance flexibility to the company.
After the implementation of the repurchase plan, the follow-up equity incentive will escort the sustained and rapid development of the company. At present, the company's 600 million yuan share repurchase plan has been implemented, and all the follow-up will be used to implement the equity incentive of the core team of the company and its subsidiaries, mobilize the enthusiasm of each team, and the long-term sustainable and high-speed development of the company can be expected.
Profit adjustment and investment suggestions
We maintain the profit expectation. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.239 billion yuan (+ 39%), 6.823 billion yuan (+ 30%) and 8.353 billion yuan (+ 22%) from 2022 to 2024, respectively. The corresponding EPS are 12.95, 16.86 and 20.64 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding current PE are 13, 10 and 8 times respectively.
Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risk of medical insurance price reduction and fee control; Increased risk of growth hormone competition; The R & D progress did not meet expectations, etc.
