\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 803 Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) )
Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) started to acquire the equity of ENN energy in 2019, and the understanding and definition of ENN energy in the capital market has also changed from this point. During the time of asset restructuring, events drive the stock price to rise. After the reorganization, the market needs a more accurate understanding and pricing of the company's value. Based on the fundamental research, this report attempts to explore valuation and pricing in depth.
Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) : operator of the whole natural gas industry chain
Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) is an important part of ENN group's clean energy industry chain. In 2020, it acquired 32.8% equity of ENN energy, completed asset restructuring and realized the upstream and downstream integration of natural gas industry chain. It is one of the largest private energy enterprises in China. In 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 115.92 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.102 billion yuan.
Low cost and diversified upstream gas supply channels. In terms of China's gas source, the company continued to deepen its cooperation with the three major oil companies, and signed a total of 24 long-term gas supply agreements with Chinese oil and gas resource providers such as PetroChina, covering a total annual gas volume of about 36.2 billion cubic meters; In terms of international gas sources, ENN energy successively signed LNG import contracts with overseas oil and gas resource providers in 2016, with a total contract volume of about 1.44 million tons. After the completion of major asset restructuring, the company accelerated the expansion of overseas gas source channels and signed four LNG import contracts from October 2021 to April 2022. At present, the total amount of contracts in hand is about 7.14 million tons, further strengthening the ability to obtain international resources.
Midstream storage and transportation pool: acquire new Austrian Zhoushan and connect the whole gas industry chain. ENN Zhoushan is the first large LNG terminal operated by private enterprises in China. 1、 The total actual processing capacity of phase II project is 8 million tons / year. After the completion of phase III project, the annual processing capacity will be expanded to 10 million tons. In October 2021, the company announced that it would acquire 90% equity of ENN Zhoushan, which will help strengthen the synergy between the upstream, middle and downstream of the natural gas industry chain.
Downstream demand pool: ENN energy is the core asset of urban fuel. Natural gas sales business has both certainty and growth: by the end of 2021, the number of urban fuel projects of the company has increased to 252, covering 124 million connected people. From 2011 to 2021, the retail mass production of natural gas increased from 4.8 billion M3 to 25.269 billion m3, with a compound growth rate of 18.1%. In addition, the direct sales volume of the company has increased rapidly. In 2021, the sales volume reached 4.12 billion m3, 3.4 times that of 2020. Benefiting from the acceleration of industry integration, the company accelerated the pace of project expansion, increased the gasification rate of superimposed stock projects, and helped the company tap the potential value of customer resources through value-added services. The company is actively transforming into an integrated energy service provider: the number of integrated energy projects put into operation in 2021 will increase to 150; Comprehensive energy sales increased to 19.065 billion kwh. From 2015 to 2021, the compound growth rate of revenue reached 113.2%, and the comprehensive energy business was in a high-speed development channel.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.42 billion yuan, 6.03 billion yuan and 6.68 billion yuan, corresponding to 9.46/8.50/7.67 times of PE. Based on the segment valuation method and without considering the impact of terminal injection, we give Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) 2022 target price of 24.83 yuan. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the price of upstream gas source has not dropped significantly, the policy side is more bearish than expected, the pace of industry integration is less than expected, the expansion of the company's comprehensive energy business is less than expected, the risk of natural gas market-oriented reform and the risk of safe operation
