\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) released the 2021 annual report: ① in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 6.153 billion yuan / yoy + 16.49% (compared with - 25.96% in the same period in 2019), a net profit attributable to the parent company of 55.68 million yuan / year-on-year turnaround (compared with - 93.7% in the same period in 2019); ② 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.427 billion yuan / yoy-16.32%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 69.4 million yuan; ③ the net cash inflow from the company's operating activities in 2021 was 2.308 billion yuan, an increase of 424.81% over the same period in the previous year. In terms of structure: ① sub sectors: the hotel achieved a revenue of 5.83 billion / yoy + 15.9% in 2021, with a total profit of - 100 million yuan (a loss of 560 million yuan compared with last year); The scenic spot achieved revenue of 320 million yuan / yoy + 26.9%, and total profit of 106 million yuan / yoy + 51.1%.
Affected by the repeated epidemic, the business data are under pressure. ① All stores: in 2021, the annual average RevPAR was 119 / yoy + 20.2% (compared with - 25.2% in the same period of 19 years, and the recovery rate was about 75%), the average house price was 192 yuan / yoy + 11.6%, and the occupancy rate was 61.8% / yoy + 4.4pct. Quarterly, Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were - 31.4% / - 8.6% / - 29.1% / - 27.2% higher than the same period in 19 years. Under the background of the improvement of Q2 epidemic situation, the company has shown a strong level of business recovery. However, with the repeated epidemic since 21q3 and the more strict control measures in North China, the business data is under pressure. ② In the same store: RevPAR in 2021 was 120 yuan / yoy + 17.5% (compared with the same period in 19 years - 26.3%), of which the average house price was 190 yuan / yoy + 9.2% (compared with the same period in 19 years - 6.9%), and the occupancy rate was 63.3% / yoy + 4.4pct (compared with the same period in 19 years - 16.7pct).
With the rapid expansion of stores, light management has become the main body of the company's store expansion. In 2021, 1418 stores were opened in gross (net opening 1021 / closing 397), and 184 / 324 / 325 / 585 stores were opened in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 respectively, which achieved the opening goal set at the beginning of the year; Among them, 133 / 276 / 954 economic / medium and high-end / light management stores have been opened respectively (242 / 80 / 32 stores have been closed respectively). The weight brands such as home, home business travel and home selection are 172 / 121 / 34, 484 for cloud series and 402 for Huayi respectively. The light management mode (including "cloud series" and Huayi) formed the main body of the company's store expansion during the year, accounting for 67.3% of the total number of new stores. By the end of 2021, the company had 5916 stores / 475000 rooms, including 1384 medium and high-end stores / accounting for 23.4% and 5167 franchise stores / accounting for 87.3%. By the end of 2021, the company had 1791 reserve stores.
The fixed increase completed the supplement of "ammunition", integrated with the group's peers and improved the rights and interests of members. In December 21, the company completed the fixed increase of 3 billion yuan, of which 2.1 billion yuan will be used for hotel expansion and decoration upgrading projects, upgrading and transforming Direct stores to accumulate strength in the post epidemic era and promote the release of performance. In addition, the company plans to transfer its managed hotel business to listed companies to solve the problem of horizontal competition, and upgrade and expand the rights and interests of members.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of the epidemic in early 22, we lowered the company's profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 480 / 10.4 / 1.29 billion in 22 / 23 / 24, and the corresponding PE will be 55x / 25X / 21x respectively. In the medium and long term, the supply of the hotel industry has been significantly cleared due to covid-19 epidemic, and a new business cycle is expected to start with the recovery of demand Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) direct sales account for a relatively high proportion, and the performance flexibility is stronger in the upward cycle; We are optimistic that the company will continue to expand stores against the trend, achieve high growth and maintain the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is at risk of recurrence, the progress of vaccination / specific drugs is less than expected, and the expansion of stores is less than expected.
