This week’s view:
Planting industry chain: on March 30, a symposium on the implementation of the seed law was held in Beijing. Ji Bingxuan, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, attended and delivered a speech. Ji Bingxuan pointed out that Xi Jinping general secretary and the CPC Central Committee attach great importance to food security and the revitalization of the seed industry. The revision of the seed law by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress is an important measure to implement the decision and deployment of the CPC Central Committee, which provides legal guarantee and institutional support for promoting the development of the seed industry and ensuring the stable production and supply of grain and important Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) products. In the next step, we should use a variety of platform carriers to strengthen publicity and popularization, create a good atmosphere for learning, respecting and abiding by the law, strengthen law enforcement inspection, strengthen inter departmental coordination, and promote the implementation of the seed law. Ji Bingxuan requested that the implementation of the seed law should ultimately focus on promoting the development of the seed industry. We should strengthen the protection of germplasm resources, do a good job in the basic source work, and strengthen the tackling of key core technologies of seed sources. In view of China’s current agricultural production reality and market demand, we should strive to make new breakthroughs in cultivating new varieties with high yield, high quality, suitable land, disease resistance, insect prevention and disaster resistance, and strive to realize the self-reliance of seed industry science and technology and the independent control of seed sources. As a country with a large population, food security is very important. National macro policies have always placed food security and seed industry revitalization at a strategic high point. The prosperity of seed industry has increased, and listed companies related to seed industry have ushered in an important policy window. In terms of target selection, we mainly recommend Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) with obvious first mover advantage and Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) .
The perennial root of sugarcane is three years in China, but five to seven years in Brazil and Australia. This is the reason why the overall supply of sugar was relatively sufficient in the past and the price of sugar did not rise for many years, but the cycle will only be late and will not be absent. 2022 has been six years away from the high point of the previous cycle. Superimposed on the higher than expected rise of oil prices and the large release of global currencies, as well as the frequent occurrence of global extreme climate caused by sunspot movement in recent years, a new upward cycle of sugar has begun. In terms of target selection, the stable target focuses on recommending Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , the leader of China’s sugar industry, and the flexible target Nanning Sugar Industry Co.Ltd(000911) is expected to benefit fully.
In addition, we continue to recommend chemical stocks with a valuation of only 12 times Meihua Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600873) . We expect that the performance elasticity in 2022 will come from the production of new lysine capacity by the end of 2021. In the long run, the monosodium glutamate and amino acid industries are limited by the new capacity under the background of carbon neutralization, and the valuation center is expected to rise.
Pig breeding: according to the data of zhuyitong, the average price of pigs nationwide this week was 12.36 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.04% on a weekly basis. In terms of production, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the national pig stock was 449 million by the end of 2021, an increase of 10.5% year-on-year. These pigs were sold successively from January to June this year, and the pork supply pattern remained loose in the first half of the year; In terms of consumption, the seasonal decline of pork consumption superimposed on the repeated impact of the epidemic, the pork consumption is weak, and the phased excess supply is obvious. However, recently, due to the upgrading of epidemic control measures in many places, poor transportation, the slaughter and transportation time of pigs has been prolonged, and the short-term pig price has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the price of pigs has warmed up, due to the rising cost of feed raw materials, the price ratio of pigs to grain has been lower than 5:1 recently, which is in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline determined in the working plan for improving the regulation mechanism of government pork reserves and ensuring the supply and price stability of pork market.
The development and Reform Commission said it would work with relevant parties to carry out the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year, and plans to collect and store 40000 tons of frozen pork on April 2 and 3. If the follow-up pig prices continue to operate at a low level, the state will continue to carry out the collection and storage work and promote the pig prices to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, which is expected to boost the pig prices and market confidence at that time. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the stock of fertile sows in China decreased by 0.5% month on month at the end of February, which is narrower than that in January. We expect that with the improvement of covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation and the recovery of transportation, the pig price is still facing downward pressure, and the capacity of fertile sows in China may increase. From the current time node, the average market value of some high-quality pig breeding stocks has fallen to a historically low level, and the configuration window has been gradually opened. The choice of specific targets to choose from among among the specific targets is to be recommended in turn for the selection of specific targets, with the following to be recommended in turn: the0 Shenzhen Guohua Network Security Technology Co.Ltd(000004) 8 , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , etc. are expected to benefit fully.
Risk tips
The recovery process of pig production capacity is less than expected, the product sales is less than expected, and the commercialization process of GM is less than expected.
