Recommended combination:
\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 031 Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) 6011 Shenzhen Universe (Group) Co.Ltd(000023) 53 Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) Shareate Tools Ltd(688257)
\u3000\u30002. Key investment points:
Photovoltaic equipment: Tongwei expands the production capacity of 32gw battery chips, which is beneficial to the equipment manufacturers in the link of battery chips
Tongwei will add 32gw (Meishan) with a total investment of 12 billion yuan, which will be implemented in two phases. Phase I 16GW will be put into operation at the end of December 2023, and phase II 16GW will be started at the right time. According to the normal investment plan, the equipment investment accounts for about 80%, and the rest includes supporting facilities. Therefore, the total investment of equipment is about 10 billion yuan, and the value of single GW equipment is about 300 million yuan. Since the first phase is put into operation in December 2023, it is still early to officially start construction. It is not rigorous to judge the possible technical route with 300 million yuan, and it is more objective to judge in advance with dynamic battery production cost. The technical route of large-scale production in the future must be the route with the steepest cost decline curve. Based on this, we believe that hjt is the most likely to become the mainstream battery technology route. At present, hjt is in a turning year from small batch expansion to large-scale expansion. Large-scale expansion itself will help reduce costs. The production expansion will be 8.1gw in 2021, 20-30gw in 2022, and the large-scale production expansion will begin in 2023. At that time, the production cost of hjt will be driven by the two ways of saving silver and silicon. With the help of silver clad copper + smbb + silicon wafer thinning + indium removal and other means [the cost is lower than perc] is lower than TOPCON (because silver clad copper and silicon wafer thinning are not applicable to TOPCON). Investment suggestions: focus on Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , and pay attention to Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) ; Recommended for wafer links Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) ; Component link recommendation Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ; Recommend Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) .
General automation: short-term fluctuations under the influence of the epidemic, optimistic about the recovery of the manufacturing industry under the background of subsequent steady growth
Affected by the epidemic, the manufacturing boom is under short-term pressure. In March 2022, the PMI index closed at 49.5%, down 0.7pct from the previous month. In view of the outbreak of a new round of epidemic all over the country and the risk of real estate downturn, we are still cautious about the outlook of the manufacturing industry in the second quarter, and the subsequent easing policies need to be introduced. However, on the whole, we are still optimistic about the recovery of the manufacturing industry under the background of stable growth during the year.
Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , the monthly output data of machine tools remained high: from January to February, the industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output reached 76000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.6%. The output of metal cutting machine tools reached 90000 sets, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2%, maintaining a high level. Investment suggestion: reducer recommendation Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ; Tool recommendations Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) , it is recommended to pay attention to Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ; Industry Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) recommended Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ; Machine tool recommendations Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) , Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) , it is recommended to pay attention to Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) .
Wind power equipment: offshore wind power will become an important driving force in the industry and pay attention to leading enterprises of high-quality parts
① the wind power industry in China is expected to enter the two stages of rapid development driven by the reform of wind power market and affordable development of wind power industry: after the wind power industry enters the era of rapid development, the wind power industry is expected to enter the two stages of demand driven development; ② The trend of large-scale wind power will continue.
Against the background of the future prosperity of wind power, it is suggested to pay attention to the parts and components with high value and high barriers: ① Tower: the consumption of single MW tower of large-scale units is almost unchanged, which is a less damaged link under the trend of large-scale. The market scale of wind power tower in China is about 67.6 billion yuan in 2020. ② Bearing: high technical barriers and scarce value promotion of single MW. In 2019, the market scale of China's wind power bearing was about 10 billion yuan; ③ Flange: large-scale flange puts forward higher requirements for the technical and financial strength of suppliers, and the market concentration will be improved; ④ Submarine cable: in 2021, the scale of China's wind power submarine cable market is about 15.6 billion yuan, the entry threshold of submarine cable is high, compulsory certification is required, the verification cycle is long, and the profitability is stronger than that of land cable;. ⑤ Pile foundation: high value. In 2020, the market scale of wind power pile foundation in China is about 9.7 billion yuan. Investment suggestions: focus on Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) , Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Ficont Industry (Beijing) Co.Ltd(605305) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , Haili wind power. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders of Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) , Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Jinlei Technology Co.Ltd(300443) , Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) , Jiangsu Lixing General Steel Ball Co.Ltd(300421) , Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology Co.Ltd(600458) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) .
Power exchange equipment: under favorable policies, the power exchange mode welcomes the rapid development, and equipment suppliers give priority to benefit
Multiple positive factors usher in the development of power exchange. On March 18, the Ministry of industry and information technology released the key points of automobile standardization in 2022. It is proposed that in terms of new energy vehicles, we will speed up the construction and improvement of the charging and replacement standard system of electric vehicles, and promote the formulation of standards for on-board power replacement system of pure electric vehicles, power replacement common platform, power replacement battery pack and so on; Carry out research and verification on the upgrading scheme of high-power charging technology for electric vehicles, and accelerate the revision and release of a series of standards such as conductive charging connection devices for electric vehicles.
2022 is the first year of large-scale capacity of power exchange stations, and power exchange equipment manufacturers benefit the most. We expect that in 2025, more than 16000 new replacement power stations will be added, and the investment in new equipment will exceed 30 billion yuan. Investment suggestion: recommend Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , pay attention to Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) , Csg Smart Science&Technology Co.Ltd(300222) , Shanghai jiuhang (unlisted), bertan Technology (unlisted), Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) .
Construction machinery: the year-on-year sales volume of excavators in February was - 14%, better than expected, and the export remained strong
In February 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 24483 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 13.5%, higher than the previous CME expectation of - 22%. Among them, 7431 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.7%, continuing to maintain a strong growth trend. Considering the recovery of overseas markets and the improvement of the global competitiveness of domestic brands, we expect the high growth momentum of subsequent exports to be sufficient to effectively smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese market. The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and attention was paid to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth. The government work report of the State Council pointed out that the annual economic growth target is about 5.5%. We should put steady growth in a more prominent position and moderately advance infrastructure investment. In reality, the pace of issuing special bonds in 2022 has accelerated significantly. We expect that the new special bonds will be mainly issued in the first half of the year. Recommendations: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) .
Risk warning: the downstream fixed asset investment is less than the market expectation; Cyclical fluctuations in the industry; The impact of the epidemic continues.
