Crude oil: prices fluctuated and fell. In the early part of the week, the crude oil export of the CPC Caspian oil pipeline partially resumed, and there were differences in the EU’s energy sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the United States and its allies discussed the possibility of further coordinating the release of oil reserves to help ease the tension in the energy market after the sanctions against Russia. However, the Hussein attack on Saudi Aramco’s storage facilities in Jeddah and the difficulties in the progress of Russia Ukraine negotiations limited the decline in oil prices, Crude oil fell first and then rose. In the late part of the week, Russia and Ukraine may hold ceasefire negotiations, and the geographical conflict has eased. At the same time, the market is worried that China’s strengthening public health prevention and control may affect demand. However, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory continues to decrease. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine have not reached a formal agreement in the negotiations, and the continuous sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia limit the decline of oil prices, and the international crude oil fluctuated. At present, the weekly average price of Brent crude oil is 110.49 (- 7.17) USD / barrel, and the weekly average price of WTI crude oil is 104.21 (- 8.19) USD / barrel.
PX: weak market focus. Crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, and the cost side support was poor; During the week, the supply of PX market further declined with the maintenance of Qingdao Lidong and the load adjustment of Urumqi Petrochemical. The overall commencement of the downstream PTA market increased with the restart of Ningbo Yisheng and Dushan energy units. The overall supply and demand structure of PX remained good, and the poor processing operation was relatively strong. The weakening of the cost side during the week was the main bad news of the PX market, and the PX market followed the price change of the crude oil market. At present, the weekly average price of pxcfr China’s main port is 118852 (- 25.10) US dollars / ton, the price difference between PX and crude oil is 381.96 (+ 27.25) US dollars / ton, the weekly average price difference between PX and naphtha is 216.47 (+ 7.14) US dollars / ton, and the operating rate is 69.53% (- 1.51pct).
PTA: the overall market decline. Crude oil prices fluctuated and fell, and the cost side support slowed down; From the perspective of PTA market itself, the restart and overhaul of the unit are carried out in parallel within the week. The overall supply change of PTA market is limited, and the supply and demand side maintains the operation of going to the warehouse. At the same time, the spot circulation continues to be tight. Individual cargo holders say that there are few available spot goods, and the basis continues to strengthen. Although there is a joint production reduction plan for downstream polyester, the specific production reduction still depends on the future market situation. At present, the supply and demand structure of PTA is performing well; However, due to the slowdown of cost side support, the focus of PTA market fell slightly. At present, the average weekly price of PTA spot is 613286 (+ 42.86) yuan / ton, the average net profit per ton of the industry is -101.36 (+ 99.64) yuan / ton, the operating rate is 69.70% (+ 3.50pct), and the social circulation inventory of PTA is 1.8350 (- 1700) tons.
MEG: market price shock operation. Crude oil prices fell in shock, naphtha international prices fell in shock, power coal prices fell steadily, and cost support weakened. From the supply side, in view of the recent high level of international crude oil operation and high pressure on the cost side, the unit load of individual petrochemical enterprises has been reduced, and China’s overall output has been reduced. In terms of demand, the terminal orders are poor, and the demand for polyester is lower than that in previous years. At the same time, due to the impact of China’s epidemic, road transportation is blocked, the load of some enterprises is reduced due to the impact of transportation and demand, and the demand for raw materials is reduced. At present, the weekly average price of MEG spot is 517143 (+ 20.00) yuan / ton, the inventory in East China tank farm is 9705 (+ 28700) tons, and the operating rate is 65.80% (- 1.20pct).
Polyester filament: the market shows a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, the double raw materials rose and fell, the support was weakened, many polyester filament enterprises offered stable prices, the focus of market transactions fell, the purchasing mood of downstream users was not high, mainly just needed to buy, and the market shipment was poor. The mainstream manufacturers continue to be weak, and the price of the weak end enterprises is expected to be superimposed. The price of the weak end enterprises is expected to be reduced temporarily, and the long-term market is expected to be stable. The price of the weak end enterprises is expected to be reduced temporarily. At present, the international oil price is still weak, the filament manufacturers have a strong willingness to ship, focus on preferential promotion, the focus of market negotiation has decreased significantly, some downstream bargain hunting, and the production and sales data have improved. However, the filament cash flow has been significantly reduced, the enterprise quotation has been increased slightly, but partial preferential shipments have been continued, and the market has been stable and small. At present, the weekly average price of polyester filament is poy810714 (- 120.00) yuan / ton, fdy843500 yuan 71 (- 200.00) yuan / ton and dty963500 yuan / ton 71 (- 192.86) yuan / ton, the industry’s average profit per ton is poy-50.04 (- 108.62) yuan / ton, fdy-97.45 (- 161.72) yuan / ton and DTY + 101.66 (- 156.98) yuan / ton respectively, and the inventory days of polyester filament enterprises are poy29 50 (+ 1.70) days, fdy29 80 (+ 1.30) days and dty34 50 (+ 2.30) days, operating rate 88.60% (+ 0.20pct).
Weaving: the market atmosphere is depressed. The recent epidemic situation is severe, the purchasing power of residents for terminal clothing has decreased, the logistics and transportation in some areas are inconvenient, and the delivery of finished products may be delayed. Most downstream weaving enterprises mainly focus on small batch orders, and the issuance of new orders is weak. At present, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 61.96% (-2.07 PCT), and the grey fabric inventory is 34.00 (+ 0.00) days.
Polyester staple fiber: the market focus moves down. At the beginning of the week, the trend of crude oil fluctuated, the cost side support was general, and the PTA of the main raw material was weak and downward. Although the price of short fiber enterprises was stable under the compression of profit space, the real single discount increased. In the middle of the week, the crude oil price fell sharply, the cost was not favorable, and the transaction focus continued to decline due to the increasingly severe epidemic prevention situation in China. In the later part of the week, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations released positive signals, resulting in the continued decline of oil price. However, the disk trend of staple fiber futures within the day was ok, which boosted the market mentality. The quotation of most staple fiber enterprises remained stable and individual quotations were reduced. However, the demand of the terminal market continued to decline, and the transaction focus of the market still moved downward. At present, the weekly average price of polyester staple fiber is 779095 (- 83.33) yuan / ton, the industry average profit per ton is -93.98 (- 84.29) yuan / ton, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber enterprises are 3.20 (+ 0.40) days, and the operating rate is 75.40% (- 3.20pct).
Polyester bottle chip: the market price fluctuates downward. On the supply side, at present, the construction of enterprises is basically stable and the market supply is acceptable. The inventory of polyester bottle and chip factories increased. This week, the crude oil market fluctuated at a high level, the cost support was general, and the downstream was more resistant to high price goods. In addition, the recent epidemic was serious, and it was difficult to get goods in the downstream, resulting in less market transactions. On the demand side, the epidemic spread again in various regions, and the epidemic prevention and control in various regions was strict, resulting in the decline of consumption capacity, the reduction of consumption in the terminal soft drink industry, and the continuous cold performance of demand. At present, the average spot price of PET bottles and chips is 836429 (- 14.29) yuan / ton, the industry average net profit per ton is + 419.30 (- 38.46) yuan / ton, and the operating rate is 95.20% (+ 0.00pct).
Xinda refining and chemical index: from September 4, 2017 to April 1, 2022, Xinda refining and chemical index increased by 122.53%, petroleum and petrochemical industry index increased by – 0.46%, and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index increased by 11.20%.
Relevant listed companies: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) . SH), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . SH), Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ( Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) . SZ), Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) . SZ), Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ( Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) . SH) and Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), etc.
Risk factors: (1) the large-scale refining and chemical plant is put into operation, and the production schedule is lower than expected. (2) The macro-economic growth rate has declined seriously, resulting in a serious depression on the demand side of polyester. (3) Geopolitics and El Ni ñ o phenomenon have greatly interfered with oil prices. (4) The production capacity of px-pta-pet industrial chain cannot be expected to change significantly.
