Last week’s market:
The social services (Shenwan) sector index rose or fell by + 2.96% in the week, ranking 11 / 31 in the rise and fall of Shenwan industry.
Shanghai Stock Index (+ 2.19%), Shenzhen Component Index (+ 1.29%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (+ 2.43%) and gem index (+ 1.10%).
Ranking of sub industries: SW hotel catering (+ 5.70%), SW tourism and scenic spots (+ 3.94%), SW Education (+ 1.98%), SW sports II (+ 0.12%), SW professional services (- 0.22%).
Top five gainers in social service industry: Cloud Live Technology Group Co.Ltd(002306) (+ 35.71%), Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) (+ 19.85%), Emtek (Shenzhen) Co.Ltd(300938) (+ 19.02%), Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) (+ 17.92%), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (+ 13.14%);
Top five declines in social service industry: Beijing Dataway Horizon Co.Ltd(301169) (- 10.29%), Zhongjin Irradiation Incorporated Company(300962) (- 8.28%), Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) (- 7.97%), Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition Inc(300795) (- 7.36%), Hna Innovation Co.Ltd(600555) (- 6.08%).
Core view:
Qingming tourism resumption: affected by the epidemic, people with travel plans during the Qingming small and long holiday chose local tourism or 1-2-day micro tourism. The same trip released the travel trend report of Qingming small and long holiday. The report shows that this year’s small and long holiday tourism market will focus on local tourism, with local hotel orders accounting for more than 60%. The prices of air tickets, hotels and other products show a downward trend compared with previous holidays. Local tourists and surrounding tourists need diversified leisure and vacation experience, and the demand for personalized accommodation such as E-sports hotels and pet hotels has increased significantly.
Industry pattern: in the short term, cross provincial travel is seriously affected by the epidemic, and there is a strong demand for short-distance personalized tourism. In the medium and long term, the disturbance of the epidemic is expected to promote the accelerated liquidation of offline consumer industries and the transformation and upgrading of business formats, and be optimistic about the anti risk ability and self adversity growth ability of leaders in subdivided industries. At present, the epidemic prevention and control measures distributed in Bodo are accurate and rapid. Under the premise of controllable epidemic in the upcoming may day and summer tourism season, offline consumer demand for catering, tourism and tax exemption is expected to be released intensively and quickly.
Investment suggestion: under the epidemic situation, offline consumption has suffered a heavy blow, the industry has undergone a structural reshuffle, and a number of policies are favorable to fundamentally help enterprises solve their difficulties. Small and medium-sized enterprises on the supply side are cleared. With the stability of epidemic prevention and control, the pent up travel demand is expected to be imminent, which is good for the leading enterprises of the subdivided track.
Risk warning: global epidemic control; Regulation of national policies; Industry regulatory risks; The downward pressure on the economy has increased.
