Zhou viewpoint: optimistic about the opportunities of leading securities companies and pay attention to the improvement of the prosperity of property insurance
The annual reports of securities companies and insurance companies basically meet our expectations. At present, sector opportunities rely more on top-down macro judgment. At present, institutions are relatively pessimistic about the prosperity of the stock market in the whole year. We are optimistic about big wealth management leaders and leading securities companies with relatively good prosperity and low valuation. At the same time, we are optimistic about the property insurance sector and Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Securities companies: the head effect of the industry is prominent, and they are optimistic about the opportunities of big wealth management leaders and head securities companies
(1) the annual reports of listed securities companies were intensively disclosed last week. As of April 5, the total net profit of 35 listed securities companies that disclosed their performance in 2021 was + 29% year-on-year, slightly lower than our previous expectations. It is expected to be mainly affected by impairment provision and investment income. From the annual report, the industry shows an increasing trend of concentration. Among the 35 securities companies that disclosed their performance, Cr6 / Cr12 accounted for 50.0% / 79.4% respectively (50.0% / 78.6% respectively in 2020). The profit concentration of head securities companies in the calf market has not decreased, and the head advantage of the industry is prominent. Among the leading securities companies, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) net profits were + 55% / + 50% year-on-year respectively, significantly better than the industry average. Wealth management, public funds and derivatives have become important new engines for the profit growth of securities companies, which is expected to drive the profit growth of leading securities companies. The net profit of public funds raised by securities companies increased year-on-year, which basically met our expectations. The net profit contribution of Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) big wealth management lines reached 54% / 29% respectively. (2) On April 2, the CSRC, together with the Ministry of finance, the state security administration and the state archives administration, issued the provisions on strengthening the confidentiality and archives management related to overseas securities issuance and listing. According to the above provisions, overseas regulators can conduct inspections through the cross-border regulatory cooperation mechanism, and the CSRC or relevant competent departments can provide necessary assistance according to the bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanism. (3) Looking forward to the first quarterly report of securities companies in 2022, we expect the profits of the public fund business line of securities companies to maintain a good growth year-on-year. We are the first to promote the leader of the big wealth management track and are optimistic about the leading securities companies with outstanding comprehensive advantages. China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) are recommended.
Insurance: focus on the recovery of the prosperity of property insurance, the bottom of life insurance valuation, and observe the progress of transformation
(1) last week, the listed insurance companies held a performance briefing in 2021. In terms of life insurance, it has basically become a consensus that life insurance is in the severe winter of the industry, high-quality agents are the core of transformation, and the upgrading of channels + products + services is carried out at the same time. There is no clear judgment on the effective time of the transformation. We believe that the efficiency improvement after the manpower bottoms out or a better forward-looking indicator. At present, the industry manpower is still in a downward trend. We expect that the probability of negative year-on-year growth of NBV in the first quarter of 2022 and the whole year is high. In terms of property insurance, the auto insurance business of head insurance enterprises has the advantages of data, pricing and service. With the increase of average vehicle premium, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the optimization of the pattern, the auto insurance may usher in a high outlook. At the same time, the impact of major disasters may be less than 2021, and the head insurance enterprises are expected to achieve better underwriting profits. (2) The recovery of property insurance boom is worthy of attention, and China's property insurance has benefited significantly; At present, life insurance is at the bottom of valuation, and the pessimistic expectation response on the liability side and asset side is relatively sufficient. However, the impact of the epidemic, the macroeconomic boom in 2022 and the growth rate of NBV in the process of transformation are still uncertain. China's recommended asset of and H-end insurance is the leading asset of and H-end insurance.
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ; Insurance: China Property Insurance (H shares), AIA (H shares), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) ; Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
