Event overview:
On April 3 Beijing time, Tesla released 2022q1 output and delivery:
The cumulative production of 305000 vehicles was + 69.4% year-on-year and – 0.1% month on month; A total of 310000 vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.7% and a month on month increase of + 0.5%.
Among them, the model s / X produced 14000 vehicles after the model change, with a month on month increase of + 8.5% (due to the model change, the model s / X was not produced in 2021q1); 15000 vehicles were delivered, with a year-on-year increase of + 625.3% and a month on month increase of + 25.1%;
Model 3 / y produced 291000 vehicles, up + 61.5% year on year and – 0.5% month on month; The delivery rate was – 5.5% year-on-year. Analysis and judgment:
Quarterly delivery reached a new high, and the growth rate was stronger than that of the industry as a whole
Delivery volume: a total of 310000 Tesla models were delivered in 2022q1, a record high of + 67.7% year-on-year, a slight increase month on month, and another quarterly delivery record. The sales volume of model 3 / y, as the main sales model, increased strongly, with a year-on-year increase of + 61.5%, accounting for more than 95% of the delivery volume of 2022q1. The delivery volume of model s / X after the modification continued to rise and basically returned to the level before the modification. In terms of export, the Shanghai factory continued to be the main producer of Tesla‘s global export products, exporting 40000 and 33000 vehicles respectively in January and February.
Mainland sales volume: according to the calculation of Shanghai insurance data, the mainland sales volume of domestic model 3 / Y in January and February 2021 reached 19000 and 24000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and 34.1%. It is expected that the sales volume of 2022q1 will exceed 65000, significantly higher than that of new power auto enterprises in the same period, reflecting Tesla‘s strong production capacity and market recognition.
US sales: according to truecar Inc estimates that in the sluggish 2022q1 retail automobile market in the United States, Tesla‘s sales bucked the trend and increased by 83.3% year-on-year to 127000 vehicles, which was better than the performance of the overall automobile industry (industry year-on-year – 15%). The sales volume of traditional automobile enterprises such as Ford, general motors, Volkswagen, Honda and Toyota decreased by more than 20% year-on-year, reflecting the accelerated substitution trend of new energy vehicles for traditional vehicles in the U.S. market.
Output: Despite the impact of the epidemic and supply chain, the total output of Tesla models in 2022q1 remained at an all-time high, basically the same as that in 2021q4, reaching 305000 vehicles, a slight decrease year-on-year.
Capacity: according to our calculation, the total capacity of Tesla is about 1.7 million units, of which the capacity of model s / X and model 3 / Y in Fremont plant in the United States is about 100000 units and 500000 units respectively; The average monthly output of model 3 / Y in Shanghai plant is more than 50000 in 2022q1, and the annual production capacity is expected to reach 700000; The super factory in Berlin, Germany, was opened and put into operation in March, and the annual production capacity is expected to reach 500000 vehicles. Tesla super factory in Texas will also be opened and put into operation this month. It is the largest of Tesla super factories, with an estimated annual output of about 500000 vehicles. It is planned to be used to produce model y and electric pickup truck equipped with 4680 batteries (expected to be launched in 2023). It is estimated that with the commissioning of the new plant, the capacity of Tesla’s four major plants will reach about 2.3 million by the end of 2022.
The price rise will affect the sales volume in the short term, and the medium and long-term growth rate is still good
Due to the rising price of raw materials, Tesla continuously raised the selling price of the whole product line in March 2022:
China: from March 10 to 17, the starting price of model 3 / y high-performance and long-term version in China increased by more than 20000 yuan, and the starting price of standard version in China increased by 15000 yuan.
United States: Tesla’s official website of the United States also made a significant adjustment to the price of the model. The starting price of model 3 / y increased by $2000 to $3000. The starting price of model s / x increases from $5000 to $12000.
Since 2021, due to cost pressure, Tesla has raised its selling price for many times around the world, and most models have increased by more than 15%. After the price rise, there is a certain impact on the demand level in the short term, but Tesla’s good brand strength and product strength still provide a guarantee for sales growth. At the same time, due to the rise of crude oil prices and the accelerated substitution trend of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles, the long-term growth rate is still good. We predict that Tesla’s sales volume will exceed 1.4 million this year, an increase of about 50%.
Strong product power drives China’s high-quality industrial chain to benefit
Tesla technology drives the qualitative change of supply and creates a strong product force that leads the generation, which is mainly reflected in:
1) self developed automatic driving of the whole stack;
2) self made power battery (4680 battery has made a substantial breakthrough and will be delivered soon).
Considering the rapid expansion of the capacity of the new model 3 / y Shanghai plant to about 700000 vehicles, we expect to fully stimulate the upstream supply chain and create historic opportunities for independent suppliers to become bigger and stronger. China’s relevant industrial chains are complete, suppliers respond quickly and have strong cost optimization ability, which well meets the development needs of Tesla’s rapid iteration of products and rapid ramp up of production capacity. Tesla’s supply chain has few levels and a high degree of flattening. Parts enterprises have more opportunities to realize assembly supporting, and the relevant targets are expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions:
Intellectualization will be the core theme of this year. Intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit will accelerate together, and we are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of acoustics + chassis by wire + domain controller; Electrification accelerates the development of lightweight, Tesla leads the integrated die casting, and improves the industry concentration while increasing the industry expansion. It is recommended to select the target from the customer dimension (new forces and other industrial chains) + product dimension (incremental parts), and the two-dimensional resonance is the best.
1. Customer dimension:
Compared with the traditional fuel vehicle, the iteration speed of the new force model is faster, the verification cycle of the supply chain is shortened, and the supply chain tends to be flattened, driving the performance growth curve of the industrial chain company to become steeper. Recommend Tesla + new forces industrial chain: [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
2. Product dimension:
The transformation of smart electric will reshape the brand power and product power. All vehicle enterprises continue to increase the configuration of smart electric, so as to improve the market share and improve the brand:
1) intelligent increment: intelligent driving – [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], the beneficiary [Nextel]; Smart cockpit: Acoustics – [ Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ], smart seat – [ Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) ], ceiling glass – [ Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) ], lights – [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ] ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Fuyao are jointly covered with computer group and building materials group respectively);
2) electrification increment: three power [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) ]; New energy heat management [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ], beneficiary [ Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) ]; Lightweight [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ], beneficiary [ Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tips
The delivery volume failed to meet the expectation due to the delay of the launch progress of new models and the construction progress of production capacity; The sluggish automobile demand leads to the sales volume of new energy vehicles outside China not reaching the expectation; The impact of chip shortage.
