Pig prices are stable during the Qingming Festival, and the state of high material prices in the breeding industry is difficult to break in the short term. The pig breeding sector is continuously recommended
Before the Qingming Festival, on April 2, the national average selling price of pigs was 12.5 yuan / kg, up 0.36 yuan / kg on a weekly basis. During the Qingming Festival, the average selling price of pigs in China was mainly stable. On April 5, Yongyi consulted the national pig quotation of 12.50 yuan / kg. The early conflict between Russia and Ukraine exacerbated the short-term fluctuation of soybean meal price. This week, the spot price of soybean meal is still at a relatively high level of 4431 yuan / ton, and the long-term contradiction of price will return to supply and demand and US soybean output. Soybean meal only accounts for 10-15% of the total cost of the mixture, and the energy material represented by corn accounts for more than 50-60%. We expect that China’s feed prices will remain high before 2022q3, driving the continuous passive deregulation of pig production capacity.
The pattern of land competition between soybeans and corn in the United States is still very obvious. While the planting area of new soybeans increased by 3.8 million acres year-on-year, the planting area of new corn decreased by 3.9 million acres year-on-year. It is expected that the annual price of corn will be easy to rise but difficult to fall before the end of 2022q3. There are still many uncertain factors in the price of oil and grease: (1) global energy price; (2) New weather factors and speculation in the United States; (3) Output, inventory and price trend of soybean and soybean oil substitutes. In the short term, we expect the oil price to be high and volatile throughout the year.
Zhou’s view: the reversal of the pig cycle is imminent, and food prices continue to rise due to multidimensional catalysis
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
Grain prices continued to rise due to multi-dimensional catalysis, and the landscape of the planting chain continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the target of grain price increase Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Highlight the advantages of transgenic technology Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , whose fundamentals will be improved; Relevant beneficial objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. It is recommended that China’s leading enterprise of animal subunit vaccine Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
The price of raw materials in the upper reaches rises, the demand in the lower reaches is booming, and the concentration of feed market in the middle reaches continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Market performance this week (3.28-4.1): Agriculture underperformed the market by 0.12 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19% and the agricultural index rose 2.08%, underperforming the market by 0.12 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the seed sector led the rise, with an increase of 4.45%. In terms of individual stocks, gains were led by Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (+ 30.72%), Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (+ 10.04%), Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) (+ 9.91%).
Price tracking this week (3.28-4.1): the prices of pigs and piglets rose month on month this week
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on April 1, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.48 yuan kg, up 0.30 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of piglets was 24.26 yuan / kg, up 0.11 yuan / kg from last week; The average price of white striped meat was 16.75 yuan / kg, up 0.32 yuan / kg from last week. On April 1, the price ratio of pig feed was 3.30:1. According to wind data, on April 1, the average profit of self breeding head was -531.05 yuan / head, compared with -18.16 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets was -292.39 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -5.36 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.48 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 68.18%; The average price of wool chicken was 8.47 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 6.54%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 1.12 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 1.97 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
