Market summary in March
In March, pharmaceutical biology rose 0.87% year-on-year, outperforming the market. The pharmaceutical business sub industry rose 11%, mainly by China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) responsible for Paxlovid Chinese mainland commercial operation news driven, small COVID-19 drugs and industry chain, COVID-19 antigen detection kit and other COVID-19 related thematic investment has become the main reason for sector fluctuations. Boosted by the release of the 14th five year plan for the development of traditional Chinese medicine, the traditional Chinese medicine sub industry increased by 4.73%, showing a bright performance.
April investment strategy
The current valuation and positions of the pharmaceutical sector are at the bottom of history. With the continuous disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the track of the high boom industry is expected to rebound first. Looking forward to April, it is suggested to pay attention to individual stocks with better than expected performance, as well as subdivided areas with fast performance growth and high prosperity:
1) new medical infrastructure: 2021 is the first year of China’s new medical infrastructure, and the growth rate of medical equipment industry is expected to increase. Recommend Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Huakang medical, etc. 2) CXO: with strong demand for orders and rapid expansion of production capacity, CXO industry is still a sub industry with high performance certainty and growth in the pharmaceutical industry. Focus on Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co.Ltd(688131) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , and it is suggested to focus on Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , etc. 3) Vaccine: HPV vaccine is the first cancer preventive vaccine. Its effectiveness has been verified by many countries. The global supply has been in short supply for a long time. With the listing of domestic vaccines and the gradual release of production capacity, it is expected to usher in a 100 billion market. Focus on: Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ; It is suggested to pay attention to: Kangle guard, REC biology, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) . 4) Upstream of life sciences: the industry has benefited from the rapid growth of scientific research investment. Domestic brands have emerged under the covid-19 epidemic, and the process of domestic substitution is expected to accelerate. Focus on Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Feipeng biology.
Topic: PD – (L) 1 combined with tigit still has broad prospects in the field of solid tumor treatment
Tigit is expected to become the first new generation immunotherapy verified by phase III clinical trials after PD – (L) 1. At present, the indications of 14 clinical trials of PD – (L) 1 + tigit in the world are NSCLC (9), SCLC (3), esophageal cancer (1) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1). Although Roche’s PD-L1 + tigit + chemotherapy combined treatment of small cell lung cancer (SCLC) failed in phase III, the industry pays more attention to the breakthrough of key indications such as NSCLC, and is also increasing investment.
Monthly gold shares in April
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ( Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) ): a multi category, multi market and multi-level comprehensive instrument leader, after covid-19, it will enjoy the acceleration of global layout and the business cycle of China’s new infrastructure, and its performance can grow continuously and stably. The company has adjusted to the bottom range of multi-year valuation, corresponding to the closing price on April 1. The valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 35x and 28x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ): HPV vaccine batch issuance has increased steadily, children’s vaccination is expected to recover gradually, covid-19 vaccine booster needle continues, sequential vaccination is implemented, and it is expected to become a stable cash flow in the future; The company has strong marketing capabilities and rich independent vaccine R & D pipelines. Wechat has started to work this year, and the largest employee stock ownership plan is deeply bound to core employees. Corresponding to the closing price on April 1, the valuations from 2022 to 2023 are 33x and 26x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk; Business risks; Trade friction exceeded expectations; Policy risk.
