Key investment points
This week (2022.3.28 – 2022.4.1, the same below): the building materials sector (SW) rose or fell by 6.29% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose or fell by 2.43% and 1.25% respectively, and the excess returns were 3.86% and 5.04% respectively.
Fundamentals and high-frequency data of bulk building materials: (1) cement: the market price of high-standard cement in China this week was 510 yuan / ton, which was + 3 yuan / ton compared with last week and + 60 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. Regions with higher prices than last week: Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region (+ 10 yuan / ton) and northwest region (+ 14 yuan / ton); Areas where prices fell: Southwest China (- 4 yuan / ton). This week, the average cement warehouse location of the national sample enterprises was 62.7%, which was + 3.4pct compared with last week and + 14.3pct compared with the same period in 2021. The average cement delivery rate (daily delivery rate / production capacity in process) of the national sample enterprises was 51.8%, which was + 3.7pct compared with last week and - 26pct compared with the same period in 2021. (2) Glass: according to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of the national float white glass original sheet is 2059 yuan / ton, which is - 54 yuan / ton compared with last week and - 221 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 56.2 million heavy boxes, up from - 250000 heavy boxes last week and + 26.34 million heavy boxes over the same period in 2021. (3) Glass fiber: the median turnover of alkali free 2400tex direct yarn was 6150 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and + 150 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021.
Zhou's view: Although the impact of the epidemic on delivery in April will continue, and the credit crisis of private real estate enterprises cannot be greatly improved, with the relaxation of purchase and sales restrictions in Fuzhou and Quzhou, we have seen the breakthrough of real estate relaxation and the government's defense of steady growth and risk prevention. Building materials have entered a rising situation similar to the expected steady growth in November last year. As a core variety in the investment chain, there are opportunities for those that are partial to cycle or growth. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , China Liansu, etc.
In terms of bulk building materials: the disturbance of the epidemic has increased the downward pressure on the economy, and the cement demand and profit are expected to rebound in the medium term. The short-term epidemic has a certain impact on the rhythm of cement delivery and price rise, but due to the further overweight of the steady growth policy, it is good for the medium-term cement demand. We expect that with the mitigation of epidemic control, cement is expected to return to the normal rhythm of price increase. The landing of infrastructure demand is expected to show significant improvement in the second quarter. The markets along the Yangtze River and the Pearl River Delta with relatively high core capacity utilization and good industry pattern are expected to see more than expected cement price elasticity. Industry self-discipline + potential environmental protection and energy consumption constraints shrink the supply capacity of the industry. In the medium term, the capacity utilization rate of the industry is expected to remain high, and the profit center will remain medium to high. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 8% in 2021 makes the current valuation of 7 times P / E ratio have room for repair. It is suggested to focus on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain, and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Gansu Qilianshan Cement Group Co.Ltd(600720) , etc. that benefit from the integration of northern market and great business elasticity in the medium and long term.
Decoration building materials: previously, the valuation of the decoration building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the impact of slowing demand, rising raw materials and cash flow pressure. Since March, waterproof material enterprises have intensively issued price increase letters in response to the recent sharp rise in raw material prices. At present, the price increase has been gradually implemented. With the expectation of marginal relaxation of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, the implementation of price transmission, the withdrawal of bad debts and the gradual release of cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantage or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right. It '' '''a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a for a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a for for a a a a a a a a a a a for for for a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a for for for for for for for for for for a a a a a a a a a a a a a for for for for for for for for for for for for for a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a for for for for for for for for for for for for a a a a a a a a a etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, and the policy concentration exceeded expectations.
