Plate market this week:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the gem index rose 1.1%, the CSI 300 rose 2.43%, the CITIC basic chemical index rose 0.42%, and the Shenwan chemical index rose 0.48%.
Rise and fall of various sub sectors of chemical industry: this week, the top five sub sectors of chemical industry were paint, ink and pigment (2.96%), soda ash (2.89%), pesticide (2.73%), compound fertilizer (2.57%) and cotton fiber (1.96%); The top five sub industries in the chemical sector were membrane materials (- 5.61%), potassium fertilizer (- 4.44%), other chemical raw materials (- 2.64%), modified plastics (- 2.14%) and viscose (- 1.71%).
Main trends of the industry this week:
Energy and chemical industry: Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree on March 31, and the new regulations on paying Russian natural gas in rubles for “non friendly countries and regions” in Russia came into force on April 1. The “non friendly countries” announced by Russia include all EU Member States. The vice president of the Security Council of the Russian Federation said that about 40% of the EU’s natural gas comes from Russia. According to the previous plan of the European Commission, it is necessary to completely get rid of the dependence on Russian fossil energy until 2030. According to Tiantian chemical network, Europe’s global production capacity accounts for more than 30% in chemical products such as vitamin A, vitamin B2, vitamin E, methionine, TDI, MDI and butyl rubber. If EU countries do not settle natural gas from Russia in rubles, EU natural gas will face the risk of supply interruption. At that time, Europe’s chemical industry will face a huge blow. Recently, BASF said that if the natural gas supply is halved, its European business will be seriously disturbed. For example, the production base in Ludwigshafen, Germany will face shutdown, which will directly affect chemical products such as vitamins, acrylic acid, TDI, butanol and resin. Among them, the production capacity of vitamin A accounts for 28% of the world. Once the shutdown is stopped, the global price rise of corresponding products will be inevitable in the foreseeable future.
Investment suggestions:
After years of competition and expansion, leading enterprises in the chemical industry have continued to consolidate the cost moat, with significant core competitiveness and relatively low current valuation. It is suggested to focus on: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) relying on the technical advantages of mitga, accelerate the application of food grade cellulose ether in the field of plant protein artificial meat; The new production capacity of subsidiary Hershey plant capsule is rapidly released, and its scale advantage is continuously enhanced. It is the first brand in Asia. It is suggested to focus on: Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) . The global tire market is a trillion level track. The epidemic has accelerated the reshuffle of the industry, and China’s leading enterprises have accelerated their expansion to seize the global market share, which is expected to maintain rapid development. It is suggested to focus on: Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) is a leading enterprise of coal to olefins in China. It has the advantage of low cost, builds a high-profit moat, and ushers in new development opportunities under the background of carbon neutralization. It is suggested to focus on: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) continue to launch new products and continuously enhance market competitiveness by relying on product and technical advantages. Sichuan Daying base has been successfully put into operation, and the construction of Guangdong Jiangmen base has been started to continuously expand production capacity, explore the market, improve the national base layout and consolidate the leading position in the industry. It is suggested to focus on: Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . China’s soda ash market continues to improve. Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) as the leader of China’s natural soda process, it will benefit from the upward prosperity of the industry. Moreover, the newly discovered natural soda ore is expected to reshape China’s soda ash supply pattern, with broad long-term growth space. It is suggested to focus on: Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) . The glufosinate industry is booming, and Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) ‘s scale and cost advantages are leading in the world. At the same time, it actively expands new products horizontally, and its performance is expected to continue to grow. It is suggested to focus on: Lier Chemical Co.Ltd(002258) . With the explosion of demand in the downstream new energy vehicle industry, the scarcity attribute of phosphate rock gradually appears. As a Chinese phosphorus chemical giant, Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) has significant advantages in industrial chain integration, and the rapid volume of electronic chemicals in the future will also give the company strong growth attribute. It is suggested to focus on: Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Large fluctuations in oil prices; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
