Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: under the background of steady growth, the peak construction season is coming, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. In the medium and long term, with the continuous promotion of carbon neutralization policy and the improvement of carbon reduction requirements of the industry, the production lines that cannot meet the standard will be phased out, the cement supply pattern is expected to be further improved and the industry concentration will be further improved. (2) Glass fiber sector: in the short term, the quotation of alkali free tank kiln roving will maintain a stable trend, with little change in the short-term supply side and good demand support. In the long run, the downstream demand of glass fiber, especially the demand for wind power, automobile lightweight and PCB, has a large room for improvement, and the price of coarse sand is expected to remain high and stable. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: at the end of March and the beginning of April, the demand performance of China’s cement market was still poor, which was mainly affected by epidemic prevention and control and rainy weather. The shipments of enterprises in different regions were maintained at 40-80%. In terms of price, affected by multiple adverse factors, the market has been seriously oversupplied recently, the inventory has been rising, the sales pressure of enterprises has doubled, and the prices in some areas have fallen. Given that it is difficult to end the impact of short-term epidemic prevention and control, and some enterprises have successively started or extended off peak production in order to alleviate the supply pressure, the cement price will maintain the shock adjustment trend in the later stage. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: the quotation of alkali free tank kiln roving will maintain a stable trend. The short-term supply side has little change, and the demand support is good. Recently, the electronic yarn market is affected by supply pressure and slow recovery of demand. The release of downstream deep processing and terminal demand is limited, and the price of electronic yarn is under pressure. In the medium and long term, we need to follow up the changes of production, sales and demand to adjust the price. At the macro level, the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation continues to advance, and the future demand for PCB and other products continues to improve, further increasing the demand space of the glass fiber industry. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: the float glass market rose and fell this week, and the overall market is still weak. At present, the newly added orders of downstream processing plants are general, the capital problem is still prominent, and there are many orders in hand, so there is no rush to deliver. Some regional processing plants have a small amount of replenishment, which coincides with the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday. Some regional individual plants have small rise plans, and the mainstream expectation is stable. Supply: the cold repair plan for individual production lines in Shandong next week, and the overall capacity supply is still high. The overall inventory of float factory is under pressure. Although the inventory in some areas has decreased, the decline range is limited. In terms of demand: the orders of processing plants continue to perform generally, and there are many orders on hand, so there is no rush to deliver. It is difficult to effectively improve the problem of terminal funds in the short term. Part of the bad news is reduced, and an appropriate amount of stock replenishment is added to the processing plant, or there may be phased good support. In terms of cost: raw fuel is at a high level as a whole. At present, the prices of manufacturers in some regions are close to the cost line, and the short-term industrial profits support the prices slightly. Focus on the industry leader Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, CSG a, Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
