The expansion of downstream wafer factories has been gradually implemented, and the global demand for silicon wafers has increased significantly. Since 2021, the capital expenditure of pure foundry or IDM manufacturers such as TSMC, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Samsung and so on has increased by leaps and bounds. With the gradual introduction of equipment, the foundry capacity of wafers will accelerate upward, which will directly promote the surge in demand for silicon wafers. Storage and logic chips for smart phones and data centers are the main demand drivers of 12 inch silicon chips. According to sumco, the global production capacity of 12 inch polished chips will increase from 4.439 million to 5.554 million from 2021 to 2025, with CAGR of 5.8%, and epitaxial chips will increase from 2.369 million to 2.682 million, with CAGR of 3.2%. The trend of Internet of things and electric vehicle drives CIS, analog IC and power devices to grow substantially to the demand of 8 inch silicon wafers. Chinese mainland manufacturers are the main force of 8 inch wafer expansion. From the statistics of China wafer fab and the expansion plan, China's 8 inch production capacity in 2020 is about 740 thousand pieces per month, and the total planned capacity in the future will reach 1 million 350 thousand pieces per month.
The industry is highly concentrated, the new capacity is limited, and the inventory of downstream silicon wafers has decreased continuously. According to semi, in 2020, the total revenue of the world's top five semiconductor silicon wafer enterprises accounted for 89.45%. From the current global actual supply of semiconductor silicon wafers, sumco estimates that the global monthly delivery of 8-inch silicon wafers in 2021q4 is about 6 million, and the monthly delivery of 12 inch silicon wafers is close to 8 million. In the case of very strong downstream demand, silicon wafer shipments were flat in the third and fourth quarters of 2021, reflecting that the global silicon wafer output has almost reached the peak, and there is little contribution of new capacity. From the customer's 12 inch silicon wafer inventory, the silicon wafer inventory has decreased for 12 consecutive months in 2021. Sumco estimates that the customer's inventory days in 2021q4 have decreased to only one month. Leading silicon wafer companies: they have begun to expand production, and the price rise will continue. The world's top five production expansion plans will not be launched until the second half of 2021, and the new capacity will not be opened until the second half of 2023. In the context of supply-demand imbalance, sumco law said that the company's 12 inch silicon wafer price will increase by about 10% in 2021, and the long-term agreement order price of 12 inch Greenfield will rise step by step by 2024, and the production capacity has been sold out by 2026. Thanks to the increase of ASP and the optimization of product structure, the annual revenue of global wafer reached a record high in 2021. The company expects ASP to further improve in 2022.
We believe that the current or reproduction of the "scissors gap" between the last round of global semiconductor silicon wafer demand and supply in 20162018. In the last round of silicon wafer supply and demand imbalance, from 2016 to 2018, according to semi data, at that time, the price per unit area of silicon wafer increased by 33.5%, and the revenue and profitability of semiconductor silicon wafer manufacturers increased rapidly. We believe that this round of industry supply-demand imbalance is expected to reproduce the silicon wafer price rise caused by the "scissors gap" between silicon wafer supply and demand in the previous round. The recent revenue and performance expectations of leading silicon wafer manufacturers are strong. Under the background of limited new capacity, the price rise is an important revenue driver. At the same time, the newly added capacity of overseas leading enterprises is expected to start climbing in the second half of 2023, and the proportion of orders in the industry long-term association will increase. We judge that the current imbalance between supply and demand in the silicon wafer industry will continue until at least the end of 2023. From China's Taiwan silicon import data, we can see that in December 2021, the ASP imports of 12 inch and above were increased by 5.1% compared with January 2021, and the price increase in 2022 was more obvious. In February 2022, ASP was 13.2% higher than December 2021. Considering that the main wafer fabs of TSMC are located in Taiwan China, they have strong bargaining power as the global foundry foundry heads. Therefore, it is estimated that the global wafer price increase is highly deterministic.
In the window of supply and demand imbalance, domestic silicon manufacturers accelerate domestic substitution, and overlay industries, and demand for prices exceeds supply. Chinese mainland semiconductor silicon manufacturers are experiencing rapid growth. China's demand for 12 inch silicon wafers depends heavily on imports, and the localization process lags seriously, becoming one of the links with the largest gap between China's semiconductor industry chain and the international advanced level. At present, manufacturers represented by National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , etc. have gradually broken through 12 inch semiconductor silicon wafers. In addition, Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) , Shanghai Super silicon, Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) , and Youyan semiconductor have also made breakthroughs in various fields of silicon materials. We are expected to see domestic manufacturers continue to expand production, accelerate the introduction of downstream customers and achieve rapid growth of revenue and performance under the high boom of the industry.
It is suggested to pay attention to: National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) , Zhejiang Mtcn Technology Co.Ltd(003026) , Youyan silicon (unlisted), Shanghai ultra silicon (unlisted).
Risk tip: the progress of silicon wafer production expansion is less than expected, and the customer certification is less than expected.
