Report summary
Allkem updates the price of lithium concentrate and expects Q2 to rise to 5000 $/ T. During the week, allkem updated the selling price of 2022q2, (1) lithium carbonate: the average price of 2022q2 lithium carbonate is expected to be 35000 $/ tfob, with a sales volume of about 3500 tons. The selling price of 2022q1 is about 27236 $/ tfob, 9% higher than the previous guidance price. (2) Lithium concentrate: the estimated CIF price of 2022q2 is about 5000 $/ tsc6%, and the sales volume is about 50000 tons of lithium concentrate. The sales price of 2022q1 is about 2218 $/ tsc6% cifdmt, including the delayed sales of lithium concentrate in 2021q4.
Comments: (1) lithium salt profit compression, focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency rate. According to 5000 yuan of lithium concentrate and 500000 yuan of lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium salt will be reduced to 140000 / ton. (2) The cost increases, and the space for lithium salt to fall is limited. According to the lithium concentrate 5000 $, the lithium salt profit is 0, and the corresponding lithium carbonate price is 300000 ￥. (3) It is suggested to pay attention to enterprises with better cash flow. The increase in the price of lithium concentrate puts great pressure on the company’s purchase cash flow. In the future, whoever has cash may grab lithium concentrate and have performance.
If the proportion of PHEV continues to increase, will it reduce the amount of lithium? Our view is that it will not, mainly for two reasons:
(1) the increase in the proportion of PHEV is mainly due to the decline of class B ev. According to the statistics of the passenger Association, the increase in the proportion of PHEV is mainly due to the fact that after entering 2022, the proportion of PHEV sales increased to 24.4% in February 2022. At this time, the proportion of class A00 EV did not decline significantly, but the proportion of class B EV continued to decline. The decline in the sales volume of class B Bev is mainly due to factors such as lack of core, and its sales volume has fallen to a low point, which has little impact on the subsequent lithium consumption.
(2) there is little difference between PHEV battery capacity and A00 level. Since March 2022, the prices of new energy vehicles have been rising continuously. Tesla, Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC GM Wuling, etc. have increased their prices one after another. Tesla, ideal and other customer groups are not sensitive to prices, and A00 is the most affected. Many people began to worry that the decline in A00 sales would affect lithium consumption. Since 2021, the battery life of PHEV has been continuously improved. The battery capacity of many models has reached 24kwh, and the battery capacity of Great Wall Euler IQ has reached 47kwh. The A00 battery capacity is only about 20kwh, and the Wuling Hongguang miniev battery capacity is 16kWh. Therefore, in the future, A00 will decline and PHEV will rise, which will not have a great impact on lithium consumption as a whole.
Therefore, we believe that the lithium consumption of new energy vehicles is increasing. At present, the market is in a state of divergence, and we can patiently wait for Q2 new energy consumption data.
Focus on: Sinomine Resource Group Co.Ltd(002738) , Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) .
Risk tip: the macro environment changes, the demand is lower than expected, and the policy uncertainty increases.
