This week’s view
This week, the power equipment and new energy index fell slightly by 0.49%, and most segments fell slightly. At present, the market risk appetite is low, the capital is relatively conservative, and the growth stocks are generally in the process of shaking and grinding the bottom. We believe that at this time, new energy has sufficient cost performance regardless of valuation or logic.
From January to February 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery shipments totaled 53.5gw, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Power battery shipments in March were 25.9gw, achieving a continuous growth of 20 months. By virtue of the competitive advantages of the first-line and second-line battery factories in the early stage, the enterprises will gradually expand their market share and make use of their own short-term capital to ensure the stability of the second-line battery production. In the future, the pattern of power battery enterprises may be further concentrated, and the back row enterprises and backward production capacity will be eliminated in this round of production expansion tide with a sharp rise in costs.
On the whole, the substantial expansion of power battery production will inevitably lead to overcapacity, but the high cost and lack of continuity of follow-up funds will lead to the final landing of capacity planning will be lower than expected. From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, the time point of cyclical surplus is around 2025, and the rapid growth of short-term demand can still cover the supply side.
We believe that the first-line (top three in shipments) battery enterprises will fully benefit from the expansion tide triggered by this round of demand by virtue of their excellent upstream and customer control. Some second-line battery plants have good performance and valuation flexibility by relying on the layout and capacity improvement of the resource side in the early stage. It is suggested to focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) etc.
Some company dynamics
Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 3 disclosed the annual report on the evening of March 30, and the revenue in 2021 was 11.162 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 102.07%; The net profit was 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 410.26%. It is proposed to distribute a cash dividend of 3.00 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, give 0 bonus shares (including tax), and increase 4 shares for every 10 shares to all shareholders with capital reserve. (company announcement)
on March 28, Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) 3, the company disclosed the performance forecast for the first quarter. The company expects to make a profit of RMB 482176400513284600 in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 210% – 230% over the same period of the previous year. (company announcement)
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic and subsidy policy.
