Demand: energy storage bidding and installation to maintain high scenery
China: in 2022, China’s energy storage battery shipment is expected to continue to maintain a high growth trend, and it is conservatively estimated that it is expected to exceed 90gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 88%. According to incomplete statistics, the installed capacity of the electrochemical energy storage power station tendered by China in March was 785mwh, and the total scale of the bid winning enterprises was about 523mwh. At the same time, Chinese enterprises have gone to sea, won the bid for overseas energy storage projects, and constantly carried out global layout. According to incomplete statistics, Chinese enterprises won the bid for overseas energy storage projects in March, reaching 1.58gwh; Among them, Huaneng digital power supply, Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) , Shenzhen Clou Electronics Co.Ltd(002121) won the bid overseas with the scale of 500, 597.88 and 485mwh respectively. High demand growth spurred the upstream to expand production. In the first quarter of 2022, China invested in 10 energy storage battery production expansion projects, involving an amount of more than 72 billion yuan and a scale of more than 166gwh.
Overseas: in the first quarter of 2022, the installed capacity of power grid in the United States reached 1.7gw, mainly due to the good sales of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) + energy storage in markets outside California; On the power side, the installed capacity of household in the first quarter was 123mw, and the installed capacity of last year was 436mw; The installed capacity of industry and Commerce in the fourth quarter of last year was 58mwh, and the annual installed capacity was 162mw / 350mwh. Australia expects the total energy storage capacity of the battery energy storage system deployed in 2022 to be about 1113mwh, while the commercial and industrial (C & I) industry is expected to quadruple.
Policy: the core driving force for the expanding scale of energy storage market
China’s local policies on mandatory allocation and storage have been successively issued and energy storage subsidies have been increased. Recently, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Hebei and Liaoning provinces have successively issued policies on mandatory allocation and storage, most of which require allocation and storage for more than 4 hours. Among them, Inner Mongolia and Henan require allocation and storage ratio of no less than 15% and Liaoning requires allocation and storage ratio of 10%; In addition, several regions in China have issued energy storage subsidy policies to accelerate the development of energy storage; Taking Guangdong as an example, the compensation standard for deep peak shaving of energy storage is about 0.792 yuan / kWh, an increase of 0.292 yuan / kWh compared with the 2020 version; It is estimated that the 10-year IRR can reach more than 6% after the standard is improved, and the independent energy storage peak shaving on the power grid side has good economy.
Overseas governments provide strong support for energy storage development. The United Kingdom, New Zealand and other countries issued relevant favorable energy storage policies. At the same time, India, the United Kingdom and Kosovo provided financial support for energy storage projects this month, providing 181 billion rupees, 63 million pounds and 234 million dollars respectively to promote the construction of new energy storage projects and industrial innovation.
Other highlights of energy storage industry:
The governments of Henan, Shanxi and Guangxi issued announcements calling for accelerating the integrated development of photovoltaic and energy storage; Promote the construction of centralized photovoltaic power generation and offshore wind power projects, and build supporting energy storage facilities.
Investment suggestions:
Focus on recommending Inverter Companies with high reserves [ Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) ], [ Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) ], [ Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ], [ Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) ]; Pay attention to the faucet in the field of energy storage and fire fighting [ Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) ], and the energy storage temperature control is expected to increase rapidly [ Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) ].
Risk tips:
The downstream demand is less than expected, the total amount of equipment is less than expected, the price of raw materials is subject to upward risks, and other risks.
