Investment advice
The reduction of 21q4 food and beverage distribution is obvious, which affects the overall position scale of large consumption. The market value of the large consumer sector with public fund positions in 21q4 was 1262.1 billion yuan, up 54.1% month on month (MOM) from 21q3, but the allocation proportion fell 2.99pct to 19.56%. Food and beverage (11.31%), household appliances (1.94%) and media (1.50%) are among the top sectors. Based on the concerns of epidemic situation, weak consumption and valuation fluctuations, the proportion of 21q4 food and beverage allocation fell sharply by 3.41pct, dragging down the overall position scale of large consumer industries.
The proportion of fund holdings in the market value of the industry has increased, and the institutional influence has become increasingly prominent. The proportion of shares held by the large consumption sector of 21q4 public funds in the total market value of the industry increased by 2.3pct to 7.7%, and the market influence increased significantly. Food and beverage (8.4%), social services (6.5%) and household appliances (5.0%) have a high proportion of fund holdings. At the level of individual stocks with key positions, the phenomenon of “holding a group” of institutions still exists.
The scenery should be long-term, and the market expectation for the better should be gradually formed. Combing the views of 10 billion fund managers with heavy positions and large consumption, we can see the following consensus: 1) the market is still full of uncertainty in the short term, such as the US dollar interest rate hike, the Russian Ukrainian war and the Chinese epidemic. 2) Have confidence in the long-term development of the capital market, the stable growth policy can be expected, and the importance of equity assets in household asset allocation continues to increase. 3) “Response” is more important than “prediction”, short-term risks are difficult to predict, and long-term trends are uncertain. At the bottom of the market, collect high-quality corporate chips. Pay attention to the opportunities of fully digested valuation, strong boom or possible reversal of difficulties.
Market Review
Rise and fall: the primary industry of large consumption was low before last week and high after last week, and generally rose on Friday. Media (5.0%), commerce and retail (3.9%) and beauty care (3.5%) led the increase, while only textile and clothing decreased slightly (- 0.3%).
Turnover: the overall daily turnover of large consumer industries was 150.8 billion yuan, up 12.4% on a weekly basis, accounting for 16.3% of the overall daily turnover of a shares. Capital flow
A-share liquidity tracking: capital outflow narrowed. Equity financing – 24.67 billion yuan; Shareholder reduction of – 1.73 billion yuan; New Development Fund + 6.55 billion yuan; Financing fund – 6.51 billion yuan; Land port link capital + 26.1 billion yuan.
Main capital flow: most industries are in a net outflow state, and the net outflow amount of main capital in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing and light industry manufacturing industries is large Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances), Visual China Group Co.Ltd(000681) (media) ranks first in the net inflow of main funds.
Northward capital flow: the northward capital flow of various industries returns to the net inflow state, and the northward net capital flow of food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and household appliances industries ranks first Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (food and beverage), Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (household appliances), China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (commercial retail) ranks first in the amount of net capital inflow to the north.
Southward capital flow: last week, the net southward capital flow of leisure services, textile and clothing, food and beverage industries ranked first. Tencent Holdings (media), meituan-w (social services) and Li Ning (textile and clothing) ranked first in the amount of net capital inflow to the south.
Transaction dynamics
Market sentiment: financing transactions accounted for 6.55% (6.69% last week); Seller’s recommendation index 355.2, comment season; Last week, the turnover rate was 2.2% (Shanghai market, 0.9%).
Hot topics: duty free shops, Hainan free trade port, virtual people, travel, online games.
Risk tips
The risk of continuous recurrence of the epidemic, the risk of external shocks and the risk of market fluctuations.
