It is estimated that the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars in March will be 1.53 million, with a month on month increase of + 5%
The epidemic caused short-term pressure on the production and sales of passenger cars. The passenger car market performed well in the first two weeks and the sales volume gradually recovered in early March; In the third and fourth weeks, some areas were affected by epidemic factors and production and marketing were limited. The wholesale end performed well in the fourth week. It is expected that the wholesale sales of passenger cars in March will be 1.53 million, with a month on month increase of + 5%.
The sales volume of the same enterprises increased significantly in March
Ai’an, Xiaopeng and Nezha sold more than 10000 yuan a month, leading the “new forces”. In 2022q1, the delivery volume of Xiaopeng / Weilai / ideal / Nezha / Zero run / extreme krypton / ai’an was 3.5/2.6/3.2/3.0/2.2/0.846000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 159% / + 28% / + 152% / + 305% / + 587% / / -, and a month-on-month increase of – 17% / + 3% / – 10% / + 7% / + 26% / + 37% / + 4%. The total sales volume of the five new forces in March was 58500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 150% and a month on month increase of + 87%. The total sales volume reached a record high, and 22q1 new energy continued to flourish.
The short-term demand depression contributed to the deterministic recovery this year and accelerated the switching from active to passive depots
From this year’s sales performance, the actual total demand for passenger cars in January and February corresponded to an annualized demand growth rate of nearly 10%, and the total sales slightly exceeded our previous expectations, slightly stronger than the 2% – 7% performance expected by our investment clock. The performance is expected to weaken slightly in the second quarter, close to 7% in the whole year. Under optimistic assumptions, 2022h2 is expected to confirm a new round of inventory cycle recovery in the automotive industry, and the passenger car sector will usher in a configurational opportunity for valuation repair.
Market performance this week: this week, the A-share automobile sector (shenwanyi industry) – 0.55%, the performance (strong / weak) is better than CSI 300 (+ 2.43%), ranking 26th among 31 shenwanyi industries. Among the segments, commercial trucks + 0.28%, commercial buses + 0.19%, Automotive Services – 1.39%, auto parts – 1.63%, passenger cars – 1.63% and other transportation equipment – 4.29%. The top five gains in the auto sector this week were Liaoning Sg Automotive Group Co.Ltd(600303) (+ 20.00%), Suzhou Jin Hong Shun Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603922) (+ 14.80%), Senci Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603109) (+ 14.35%), Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) (+ 13.99%), Changzhou Langbo Sealing Technology Co.Ltd(603655) (+ 11.24%); The top five declines were Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (- 11.45%), Guilin Fuda Co.Ltd(603166) (- 11.63%), Guangdong Dcenti Auto-Parts Stock Limited Company(603335) (- 13.70%), Zhejiang Yueling Co.Ltd(002725) (- 15.76%), Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) (- 17.25%).
Investment suggestion: after the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry is determined to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired after the recovery period, with a significant premium over the parts sector. Before confirming the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle, there is only a band opportunity. The automobile sector generates sub industries in rotation, and the parts sector is expected to become the main line of optimal allocation. For passenger cars, it is suggested to pay attention to Geely motors, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; For parts and components, it’s recommended to recommend a sector to recommend a line to control chassis for parts and a sector to recommend a line to chassis related companies for parts and parts of the sector to recommend parts for parts and parts for parts of the sector to recommend a line to chassis related companies for parts and parts for parts and parts for parts and parts for parts and parts for parts and parts for parts of the sector to recommend a sector to recommend a sector to recommend a sector to recommend a line to take a line to chassis related chassis related companies for parts and parts for parts and parts to recommend a list of parts for parts to recommend a line to recommend a line of parts for parts and parts to recommend parts for parts and parts to recommend a sector to recommend parts for parts and parts to recommend a line to be recommended to recommend a line to recommend a chassis related company to chassis related companies for parts and parts and parts for parts and parts to recommend to recommend a line to be recommended to recommend to recommend and focus attention, and suggestions to pay attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the attention to the.
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs have restored the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global chip shortage has more constraints on automobile supply than expected, resulting in lower sales than expected.
