Industry perspective update:
Home furnishing: Recently, Quzhou and Qinhuangdao cancelled the restriction on the purchase of commercial housing, and more than 60 cities have introduced stable real estate policies since this year. In the current context of maintaining the stability of real estate, more loose policies on real estate may be implemented, the home sector is expected to improve, and there is still significant room for repair in the valuation of the sector. Moreover, from the fundamental point of view, the recent recurrence of the epidemic in China is only a short-term disturbance. Referring to the epidemic in 2020, the demand for home furnishings is relatively rigid and will still lag and not disappear. From the current grass-roots research, when all families are turning to the "whole family customization" mode, the trend of head acceleration and concentration begins to appear. We still believe that more attention should be paid to the changes in the supply side of the industry in 2022. Under the trend of integrated sales of customization and software, the requirements for the comprehensive ability of brands and dealers will be higher, the threshold of competition will be significantly improved, and the industry pattern is expected to usher in marginal optimization. On the whole, we are still optimistic about Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , which have significantly leading comprehensive ability, and the results of in-depth reform will gradually appear.
New type of tobacco: in terms of atomization, this week, SIMORE disclosed the annual report of 2021. It is noteworthy that the company's R & D expenses in 2022 will be significantly increased to 1.68 billion yuan. The company will not only increase basic research, but also increase the transformation from technology to products. We believe that this will not only help the company maintain the leading edge of e-smog technology and further enhance customer binding, but also help the company in medical The expansion of beauty atomization field is a sign of entering a substantive stage. At the industry level, we think its long-term growth space is still worth looking forward to, and the increase of the entry threshold of the industry in the future will also make the stickiness between brands and manufacturers stronger, and the pattern of manufacturers is expected to be greatly optimized. In addition, in terms of export, with the stricter regulation of disposable e-cigarettes in the United States, the market share of bullet changing products is expected to gradually increase in the future, and the growth certainty of SIMORE's overseas business is still high. On the whole, SIMORE's short-term performance may be subject to fluctuations in the Chinese market, but the certainty of long-term growth is improving. Under the current valuation level, the value of long-term layout is prominent.
Papermaking: the high pulp price supports the cost driven price rise of paper enterprises. It is suggested to pay attention to special paper targets with a better pattern and pulp leaders with high self supply rate of raw materials and expected quarterly improvement of net profit per ton. Under the pressure of high cost, the recovery rhythm of the operating rate of various paper enterprises slowed down, and the operating rate of coated paper and double offset paper this week was + 0.26% and + 0.66% month on month; Under the interference of the recent epidemic, the goods turnover is slightly under pressure. The inventory days of coated paper and double offset paper are + 0.21%, + 0.38% and + 0.28% respectively; The academic flood season has driven the marginal recovery of demand for cultural paper + the weakening of pressure at the import end. The peak season of cultural paper continues from April to May. It is expected that the price rise will be implemented smoothly, and the performance of white card export end is strong, and the sustainability still needs to be tracked. From the perspective of cost, the UPM strike was extended to the end of April. Under supply constraints, it is expected that the price of wood pulp in the first half of the year is expected to remain high and fluctuate, which also supports the smooth implementation of the price increase of paper enterprises. However, the excess transfer of follow-up costs still depends on the prosperity of downstream demand. At present, the overall performance of downstream demand is general, and the price increase is expected to continue to be implemented gradually.
Investment advice
Home furnishing: recommend Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) (Integrated Business & platform), Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) (domestic share concentration & export profit elasticity), Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (it is improving in many aspects, and there is a large space for valuation repair).
Papermaking: it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , repair the fundamentals quarterly from 1q, pick up the demand of cultural paper in the peak season, replenish the stock & under the background of low profit, the price increase of the paper mill in March has been successfully implemented, and the net profit per ton has recovered to about 300 yuan. At the cost end, when 800000 tons of chemical pulp are put into operation in Guangxi, the high price of external pulp has a limited impact on the cost end; The medium-term release of 5.25 million tons of production capacity supports the growth logic.
Risk factors
The extent and duration of the slowdown in China's consumption growth exceeded expectations; Real estate sales have been shrinking sharply for a long time; The price of raw materials rose faster and longer than expected; The exchange rate fluctuated sharply.
