Investment advice
View of semiconductor industry: with the passivation of the news of regional war, the bearish rise of interest rates in the United States and the rebound of bitcoin, the stocks of global semiconductor and technology sectors rebounded significantly this week. However, NVIDIA announced high-profile cooperation with Intel Wafer Foundry Department. Semi conservatively predicted that the year-on-year growth of global large silicon wafer shipments in December and August 2023 would slow down to 1-3%, At present, the US government has not decided whether to subsidize part of the 52 billion semiconductor fund to semiconductor companies headquartered in the United States. Coupled with the slowdown in the demand for smart phones and consumer laptops, these incremental messages are not conducive to TSMC, Samsung, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) . According to the analysis, Intel and NVIDIA have serious competition problems in image processor, artificial intelligence training chip and central processing unit. Intel also lags behind TSMC and Samsung in OEM cost and process technology. NVIDIA announced to find Intel OEM in a high-profile manner to suppress the price rise trend of TSMC’s advanced process and understand the evolution of Intel’s internal product process technology. Semi’s prediction of semiconductor demand in 2023 is too early to make a final decision. At present, the supply of servers and automotive chips is still in short supply, and the delivery cycle is more than 40 weeks. Although the slowing demand for smart phones and consumer laptops will release more capacity of repeated orders, the global 8 “/ 12” capacity expansion is limited due to the lack of core of semiconductor equipment and the delivery period is still as long as 18 months. The global OEM capacity will expand by 10-12 points in 2022 / 23, Changes in supply and demand will not get out of control. Finally, if the U.S. government chooses to subsidize only U.S. semiconductor companies, we boldly expect TSMC and Samsung to suspend high-cost semiconductor investment in the United States so as not to become a Vocational Training Institute for competitors.
View of the electronics industry: the sales volume of new energy vehicles maintained rapid growth in March, Byd Company Limited(002594) stopped production of fuel vehicles, and the shortage and price rise of some part numbers of automobile chips are still severe. We continue to be optimistic about new energy smart vehicles benefiting from the electronic semiconductor industry chain. The main brands of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in China maintained rapid growth, and the seven major brands including Xiaopeng, ideal, leader and Weilai increased by 88% month on month. On April 3, Byd Company Limited(002594) announced to stop the production of fuel vehicles. Affected by the global covid-19 epidemic, the Japanese earthquake, the shutdown of Renesas and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the supply of raw materials and the reduction of on-board chip supply, coupled with the acceleration of automobile electrification and intelligence, there is a strong demand for on-board chips. At present, the shortage and price rise of some material numbers of automobile chips are still severe. After continuing to raise the prices of Renesas and Infineon, a major automobile chip manufacturer, on March 29, Italy France semiconductor announced to raise the prices of all product lines in the second quarter of this year. We believe that China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile is developing rapidly, and there is a strong demand for automobile chips for electrification + intelligence. However, automobile chips are basically monopolized by large foreign manufacturers. In 2021, the global automobile semiconductor market will be about US $37 billion, and the top five companies NXP, Infineon, Renesas, Ti and St account for 50% of the total market. In the future, Chinese automobile manufacturers are expected to accelerate the introduction of Chinese suppliers of automobile chips, Driven by demand growth and domestic substitution, China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) intelligent automobile electronic semiconductor industry chain will actively benefit. We continue to be optimistic about the opportunities of electronic semiconductors for new energy and intelligent vehicles, focusing on the industrial chain of silicon carbide, IGBT, thin film capacitor and intelligent driving; Consumer electronics is mainly optimistic about AR / VR, folding screen mobile phone innovation and other fields; PCB is mainly optimistic about vehicle and server.
View of communication industry: Huawei’s latest annual report shows that the separation of “new” and “old” in the communication industry chain is accelerating, and attention is paid to the investment opportunities of the new generation ICT industry chain. In recent years, the communication industry has begun to divide into “old” and “new” parts, that is, the traditional communication equipment industry chain and the new economic parts such as the Internet of things, cloud computing and digital energy. As Huawei’s operator business is closely related to the global 5g construction cycle, with China’s 5g construction peak, the revenue in 2021 decreased by 7.0% year-on-year. The growth rate of Huawei cloud, digital energy and other businesses representing the new economy of the communication industry chain exceeded 30%. Under the background of accelerating the transfer of the value chain of the communication industry to the new generation ICT industry, it is suggested to grasp the relevant investment opportunities from two main lines. First, the industry leaders in the high growth track. It is suggested to pay attention to Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Shenzhen H&T Intelligent Control Co.Ltd(002402) , Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , and Shenzhen Topband Co.Ltd(002139) , in the field of IOT modules; And in the subdivided track with large incremental space and high single vehicle value in the field of intelligent vehicles, the industry leader with competitive barriers has been established. Second, the industry leaders with improved competition pattern or reversed fundamentals in the traditional communication field, including the main equipment manufacturers with global expansion ability, such as Zte Corporation(000063) , and the operator sectors with global depression and improved fundamentals, such as China Mobile.
Recomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomrecomcombinations: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) .
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles / mobile phones is lower than expected, the intelligent configuration is not as expected, and the valuation is high
