Core view: April or this year is the best time to lay out the automobile sector. 1) The valuation is relatively reasonable. Since December last year, the automobile has been adjusted continuously. At present, the automobile index PE and Pb are 35.3 times and 2.5 times respectively, which are in the percentile of 39.4% and 52.1% in the past three years. 2) Q1 is the low performance of the whole year. April is the month of centralized publication of the annual report of 21 years and the quarterly report of 22q1. According to the data of the current annual report, the median year-on-year growth rate of 21q4 net profit is 41.6%; Affected by the cost side pressure and the impact of the epidemic on production and sales, the performance of 22q1 is expected to be the lowest point of the whole year. 3) Share prices may have reflected the “hardest” fundamentals. With the mitigation of cost side pressure and epidemic disturbance, Q2 starts to improve the marginal performance, and the medium and long-term logic will dominate. In the era of smart cars, the strong rise of independent brands has led to the emergence of global vehicle enterprises; With the independent rise and Tesla pulling two wheel drive, domestic parts enterprises will be born as global parts leaders. Therefore, we believe that it is recommended to bargain hunting in the auto sector.
The new forces of car making delivered a brilliant performance in March. 1) Weilai delivered 9985 vehicles in March, yoy 37.6%; 25768 vehicles were delivered in Q1, yoy 28.5%; Et7 has been delivered in late March, and 163 vehicles have been delivered as of March 31. 2) Xiaopeng delivered 15414 vehicles in March, yoy 202.1%; 34561 vehicles were delivered in Q1, yoy 159.1%; P7 delivered 9183 vehicles, exceeding 9000 for the first time. 3) 11034 vehicles are expected to be delivered in March, yoy 125.2%; 31716 vehicles were delivered in Q1, yoy 152.1%; L9 will be released in mid April. 4) Nezha delivered 12026 vehicles in March, yoy 270.5%; 30152 vehicles delivered in Q1, yoy 305.1%; 5) 10059 vehicles were delivered in March, with a mom of 192.8%; 21579 vehicles were delivered in Q1, yoy 410.0%. 6) 1795 polar krypton vehicles were delivered, with a mom of – 38.4%; Since its delivery in November last year, 14248 vehicles have been delivered in total.
Data tracking: in the first four weeks of March, 48000 vehicles were approved on a daily basis, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% and a month on month decrease of 6.0%. The wholesale sales of the first four Sundays were – 20.5%, – 3.2%, – 20.5% and – 5.3% respectively year-on-year. In the first four weeks of March, the cumulative daily average retail sales was 39000, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% and a month on month decrease of 10.0%; Retail sales on Sundays were – 9.9% and – 29.2% respectively, up from the previous four months. Since March, the epidemic has been repeated in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and other production and sales regions, which has greatly disturbed the automobile industry.
Investment suggestions: 1) after continuous adjustment, the cost performance of the whole vehicle is reasonable; The prospect of independent rise is promising. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Intelligent driving industry chain, Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . ③ Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ④ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
