Main points:
Market performance
Last week, the food and beverage sector index rose 2.90% as a whole, ranking 11th in the Shenwan sub industry, leading the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.47% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.71% respectively. In the sub sectors, soft drinks (0.83%), other alcoholic beverages (0.87%), flavouring fermented products (0.87%), baked food (1.03%), Baijiu (3.06%), health products (3.22%), beer (3.33%), dairy (3.47%), snack (3.82%), meat products (6.99%) all showed a rising trend.
Investment recommendation
Popular products: the inflection point of the decline of Mengniu’s sales expense rate in the past 21 years has been verified. The integrated development of the upstream and downstream of the two strong dairy industry has gradually entered the harvest period, and the differentiated positioning strategy has been gradually clarified. Under the catalysis of the pressure of raw milk, we believe that the investment efficiency of channel expenses is higher, the national publicity expenses remain stable, and the sales expense rate is expected to continue to decline, promoting the medium and long-term profit margin of dairy enterprises. Continue to focus on the recommendation of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) . On the other hand, Chinese bakery and bakery belong to the rigid needs of families. Under the impact of the epidemic, there is a high certainty of demand growth, and the rising raw materials and costs also accelerate the penetration of industrial production in the field of bakery and staple food. It is recommended to Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) , Toly Bread Co.Ltd(603866) .
Baijiu: external disturbance has a relatively short term effect, but in the long term, certainty is still strong. In terms of high-end wine, Feitian’s rating has declined, which is due to the frequent epidemic in first tier cities, the suppression of demand and the irrational clearing of social inventory caused by the online e-commerce platform. The tight pattern of supply and demand has not been reversed, and Feitian’s rating is expected to rise. In terms of regional famous wines, we believe that the main line of consumption upgrading is still clear. Considering the bottom dragging effect of local finance and infrastructure under the background of steady growth, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of consumption replenishment after the economy and the epidemic stabilize.
Key industry data
Baijiu: this week Moutai wine wholesale price declined compared with last week, this week’s price is 2815 yuan. In terms of loose bottles, the price of this week decreased slightly compared with that of last week, and the price of this week was 2605 yuan The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) lot price was stable at 965 yuan / bottle, and the Guojiao 1573 lot price was stable at 920 yuan / bottle.
Food: on April 1, the price of wheat was 320000 yuan / ton, the price of corn was 283706 yuan / ton, and the price of soybean was 550474 yuan / ton. On April 1, the price of white granulated sugar was 5.81 yuan / kg. On April 1, the prices of piglets, pork and hairy pigs were 14.88 yuan / kg, 18.23 yuan / kg and 15.70 yuan / kg respectively. On March 23, the price of raw and fresh milk was 4.18 yuan / kg. On March 25, the retail price of milk powder remained basically unchanged.
Industry highlights
Recently, there has been some fire in convenience food, which has stimulated consumer demand again under the epidemic. In tmall’s top 20 hot list of instant noodles, the hot white elephant won the title. In terms of price, affordable instant noodles account for the majority, and the consumption of instant noodles shows three trends: spicy, low calorie and high-end. There are many new changes in instant noodles, but it is not the only choice for young people to live a fast-food life. The young generation pursuing freshness will want to try more interesting and fresh fast-food. According to the notes containing the keyword “fast food” in Xiaohong book for nearly three months, in addition to the traditional quick-frozen food, young people mainly like three types of fast food: 1) regional cuisine represented by snail powder. Among the categories mentioned in the post, snail powder accounts for more than 25%, becoming the hottest “fast food” in xiaohongshu. In recent years, many regional delicacies have also emerged, such as duck blood vermicelli, Jiangxi rice noodles and so on; 2) Fresh boiled pasta or Ramen has become a choice for young people’s exquisite life; 3) Self heating hot pot / rice, which can be eaten by one person without going out in line, is second only to snail powder and instant noodles. One of the reasons why there are more and more fast food categories is that for many young people, fast food has gradually become a necessity. On the one hand, the fast pace of work and life makes it difficult for young people to have more energy to prepare and cook slowly. On the other hand, under the epidemic, consumers have gradually formed the habit of hoarding goods.
Risk tips
The risk of long-term epidemic prevention and control in China; Risks of major food safety incidents; Major agricultural epidemic risk.
