Liquidity: the growth difference of m1m2 in February was – 4.5 percentage points. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Stock Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 4.5 percentage points in February 2022, with a chain comparison of + 7.2 percentage points; (3) SPDR’s gold ETF position was 109173 tons this week, down – 0.13% from last week.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the national steel PMI new order index in March was – 3.9 percentage points month on month. (1) Price changes this week: thread + 0.80%, cement price index + 0.42%, rubber + 1.53%, coke + 0.00%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore + 4.20%; (2) This week, the national blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, petroleum asphalt and all steel tire operating rate were -1.67pct, + 4.63pct, -2.20pct and + 2.68pct respectively; (3) In March 2022, the national steel PMI new order index was 39.3%, down – 3.9 percentage points from the previous month.
Chain of real estate completion: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass fell sharply this week. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and – 3.29% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 946 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 37.73%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 155 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 38.74%.
Industrial product chain: in March, the PMI new order index (48.8%) fell below the boom and bust line again. (1) The price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by + 0.54%, – 0.12%, – 1.17% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 15.58%, + 0.54%, – 4.51%; (2) In March 2022, the national PMI new order index was 48.80%, with a chain comparison of – 1.9 percentage points.
Subdivided varieties: the prices of molybdenum concentrate and prebaked anode reached new highs since 2012 and 2017 respectively. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25500 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 479295 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 6.97%; (2) Nickel: the price of this week is 223900 yuan / ton, with a month on week increase of – 15.09%; (3) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 6450 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 3.20%; (4) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22720 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 1.17%, and the estimated profit is 4942.7 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month ratio of – 4.51%; (5) This week, the Platts price index was 159.85 US dollars / ton, and the comprehensive gross profit of the iron and steel industry was 353 yuan / ton, down from – 5.81% last week; (6) The price of molybdenum concentrate was 2710 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.12%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread rebounded to 260 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of screw thread to iron ore was 5.06 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and rebar this Friday is 260 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 620 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month ratio of + 10 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.10; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 100 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: in March, the global PMI new order index decreased by 2.1 percentage points month on month. 1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 320483 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 2.14%; (2) In March 2022, the value of new orders of global PMI was 51.40%, with a chain comparison of – 2.10 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was + 2.43%. The best performance of the cyclical sector was real estate (+ 10.82%), and the quantile of Pb ratio of Pu steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 31.34% and 82.09% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.502, and the highest value since 2013 is 0.82 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: the expectation of output reduction in the industry will increase in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
