Sub industry core week view
It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles in nine European countries in March is 200000, which is full of toughness under strong external interference, exceeding market expectations. 1. In February, the total sales of electric vehicles in nine European countries were 121000 and 129000, with a year-on-year increase of + 31% and + 33%. In terms of breakdown, the sales volume of BEV in January and February was 67000 and 74000, with a year-on-year increase of + 65% and + 71%; 1. In February, the sales volume of PHEV was 53000 and 54000, with a year-on-year increase of + 4% and + 2%, mainly due to the lack of high-quality PHEV models at the supply side. According to the data released by some countries, we estimate that the sales volume in Europe in March was about 200000, with a month on month increase of + 55% and a year-on-year increase of + 1%, which was mainly due to the shutdown of European auto enterprises in early March due to the shortage of parts. It is estimated that the sales volume of electric vehicles in 1q22 Europe is about 450000, with a year-on-year increase of + 16%.
In March, the European auto market was affected by external factors such as high oil prices and supply chain, and Q2 constraints decreased, which is expected to pick up. 1. In February, the automobile sales of nine European countries were 643000 and 636000, with a year-on-year increase of – 2% and – 7%. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine further affected the shortage of semiconductor and other parts, and some European automobile enterprises were forced to reduce production / stop production. Superimposed on factors such as rising oil prices and inflation, the prices of new and used cars have increased significantly, and the use cost has increased. We expect that the sales of cars in Europe in March will be about 800000, a year-on-year increase of – 31%. At present, Volkswagen’s factories have resumed production from mid March to the end of the month. BMW, Mercedes Benz and other car enterprises will restart production in early April. The interference factors in the supply chain are alleviated, and the European car market Q2 is expected to pick up.
Price side: in Europe, the price of electric vehicles is not only rising, but also the price of oil and fuel vehicles. On the contrary, the demand for electric vehicles is strengthening. According to the statistics of automobile prices on autoscout24 website in Germany, the average selling price of electric vehicles in Germany increased by 6540 euros year-on-year in February 22, the average selling price of diesel vehicles increased by 4576 euros, and the average selling price of gasoline vehicles increased by 4897 euros year-on-year. The price of Tesla m3rwd in Germany has increased by 7000 euros to 49990 euros compared with 21 years, and the price of long-range version has increased by 5000 euros to 56990 euros. Under the background of price increase, Tesla‘s production has been scheduled to August 22. With the rise of electric vehicle prices, oil prices and fuel vehicle prices are also rising, and the attraction of electric vehicles to consumers is strengthening.
Supply side: Tesla Berlin began to deliver, Volkswagen id.5 and other new models were intensively listed, and there are many supply highlights this year. 1. In February, Tesla sold 823 and 15715 vehicles in Europe, with a year-on-year increase of – 54% and + 191%. The sales volume in March is expected to be 35000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 46%. After the commencement of the German plant, Tesla’s delivery capacity in the European market has been greatly improved. We expect that the European sales volume will be 300000 in 22 years, a year-on-year increase of + 80%. In February, Volkswagen id5 began to be delivered in Europe, and the ID series product matrix was further enriched. In addition, new electric vehicles such as Skoda enyaq, Renault Megane, BMW IX, I4, Mercedes Benz EQE and EQA have been delivered one after another, which will accelerate the electrification process in Europe.
In March, the European market exceeded expectations and waited for the expected reversal of the electric vehicle sector. Due to the soaring price of lithium carbonate and the intensification of economic fluctuations due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the market has been quite different about the European terminals in March. The final data shows that the European electric vehicle terminals are full of toughness and exceed market expectations; Q2 Beijing auto show will have a number of high-quality new models on the market. We believe that under the current environment, the substitution trend of electric vehicles for fuel vehicles is accelerating, and the expected reversal of the electric vehicle sector is only a matter of time, so we continue to be optimistic.
Important industry events this week
1. Comments on sales volume in Europe in March; 2. Wuling Automobile 21 year performance review; 3. Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) 21 year performance review; 4. Byd Company Limited(002594) 21 year performance review; 5. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) comments; 6. recommended combination of sub industries for performance evaluation in Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) 21
Risk tips:
The sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected; The price competition in the industrial chain is more intense than expected; Risk of policy changes.
