Main points:
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.19%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 2.43%. Steel sector rose 2.49%; Among the sub sectors, the ordinary steel sector increased by 2.82%, and the special material sector increased by 2.63%.
Steel market: the epidemic continues to impact transportation and supply, and steel prices remain high driven by rising costs and reduced inventories
The epidemic continued to spread, and the purchase of raw fuels and the sales of finished products in steel mills were blocked. As of March 31, the total scrap inventory of 61 steel mills was 2.4747 million tons, down 1.47% from last week; The average daily arrival volume of scrap steel was 292467 tons, an increase of 3.96% over last week; The average daily consumption was 307216 tons, down 0.49% from last week. The inventory of raw materials decreased by 158.39 million tons compared with that of shuangshe warehouse last week; The inventory of steel mills of main varieties of steel products fell to 6.2918 million tons, a decrease of 80600 tons compared with last week. The rising cost of raw materials and the double drop of inventory drive the high and horizontal price of steel.
Steel prices rose slightly this week, with spot prices of rebar, hot rolling, cold rolling and medium sector rising by 0.80%, 1.15%, 0.18% and 0.78% respectively. Specifically, the breakdown categories: in terms of hot-rolled coil, logistics and storage are limited, the terminal demand is weak, and the overall trading improvement of the market is limited; In terms of scrap steel, the flow of resources is stagnant, and the short-term market price is expected to remain high; In terms of double coke, China’s environmental protection requirements limit the supply increment, the supply side supports the coking coal price, and the demand side is affected by the epidemic to a certain extent and needs to be improved.
In terms of special steel, under the guidance of high-quality development policy, subdivision tracks such as pipeline and steel structure deserve attention. From the perspective of new infrastructure construction, China’s pipeline has entered the upgrading stage, the construction of rural water supply and drainage system is rough, and the construction of urban sponge pipe network is also close at hand. It is suggested to pay attention to Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , etc. As the core metal material in the field of new energy vehicles, electrical steel is also a sector worthy of attention. The rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the downstream demand for electrical steel. At present, the valuation of the sector is generally not high, and it is optimistic about the electrical steel sector for a long time. It is suggested to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , etc.
The price of rebar in the spot market this week was 502000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.80%; The price of hot rolled coil is 528000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15%; The price of cold rolled coil is 562000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.18%; The price of medium board was 519000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.78%. In the futures market, the active contract price of rebar was 516000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 2.93%; The active contract price of hot rolled coil was 531900 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.70%; The active contract price of wire rod was 554200 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.68%. The myspic composite steel price index was 189.53 points, with a weekly increase of 1.61%, of which the myspic long material index rose by 1.91% and the myspic flat sector index rose by 1.24%.
Raw material Market: scrap resources are tight, and the coke market is supported by the supply side until the demand side improves
As of Friday, the price of Australian Pb powder in the spot market was 101000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.77%; The price of primary metallurgical coke is 371000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0%; The price of main coking coal was 320000 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.22%. In the futures market, the active contract price of iron ore was 926.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 9.26%; The contract coke price was 399700 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7.06%; The active price of coking coal was 324400 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 4.44%. Price speculation, coupled with the impact of the epidemic on logistics, the shortage of raw material scrap resources, strong construction steel prices in the southwest market, and strong raw material prices.
Steel supply and demand will be improved and the price of steel will be lifted
In terms of steel mill inventory this week, cold rolling, medium and heavy sector increased by 3.18% and 3.69% respectively, and hot rolling, wire rod and rebar decreased by 1.79%, 2.95% and 2.20% respectively. In terms of steel output this week, the output of cold rolling, hot rolling, wire rod and thread decreased by 0.94%, 2.18%, 1.25% and 2.50% respectively, and the output of medium and heavy sector increased by 6.15%. With the gradual recovery of local transportation and logistics, the demand rebounded, and the social inventory maintained a downward trend, and the decline increased. According to the data of China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the social inventory of steel and the inventory of steel mills are lower than that of the same period last year, and the steelmaking cost increases significantly with the rise of raw fuel prices, which will help support the steel price. With the combination of policy support and infrastructure investment, the epidemic control is improving, and the steel demand requirements of the manufacturing industry are expected to be released.
Investment advice
With the recovery of manufacturing demand superimposed on the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the profit logic of the steel industry has been reconstructed, and steel enterprises have further benefited from the cyclical rotation. We are still optimistic about the steel sector for a long time. The national defense, military industry and aerospace industry have a broad domestic substitution space, and products such as superalloy, special stainless steel and ultra-high strength steel occupy an absolute dominant position. It is suggested to focus on the performance of the interim report and the leader of special steel in fulfilling the industry’s high vision: Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ; Traditional field leaders + popular emerging business targets are more favored by the market. It is suggested to focus on stainless steel rods and wires and mica lithium extraction leaders: Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ; And the high growth leader in the field of cold-rolled stainless steel: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) .
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; The economic downturn accelerated; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The demand for real estate steel fell sharply; Steel destocking process is blocked.
