In March, the sales of the top 100 fell by more than half year-on-year
The monthly sales of the top 100 continued to weaken year-on-year. According to Kerui data, in March 2022, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises (companies with comparable caliber) increased by 26.6% month on month, decreased by 52.9% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 6.6pct compared with February 2022. The monthly sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline year-on-year, and the month on month growth rate changed from negative to positive. Among the top 100 real estate enterprises, 51 had month on month sales growth, 26 more than that in February, 7 more than that in February, and 1 more than that in February.
The cumulative sales of the top 100 continued to decline year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of the top 50 real estate enterprises showed negative growth. From January to March 2022, the cumulative sales amount decreased by 46.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 4pct compared with that from January to February. From January to March, the sales amount of top 10, top 20, top 30, top 50 and top 100 real estate enterprises reached RMB 370, 216, 159, 7.7 and 3.2 billion respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 45.4%, 55.0%, 50.2%, 53.7% and 50.2%, of which the decrease of top 20 threshold was the most obvious. In March 2022, the monthly sales amount of top3, TOP10, top11-30, top31-50 and top51-100 decreased by 33.5%, 39.7%, 48.3%, 52.2% and 49.9% year-on-year. The growth rate decreased by 0.5, 6.3, 6.8, 12.9 and 18.1 PCT respectively compared with February 2022. Among the top 50 real estate enterprises, only COFCO Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) is a positive growth (13.5%) in the top five real estate enterprises in terms of year-on-year growth of sales amount in a single month; Other real estate enterprises showed negative growth, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (- 15.1%), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (- 19.2%), China Resources Land (- 20%) and Lujin group (- 21.8%). Since the beginning of the year, the top five real estate enterprises with year-on-year growth of cumulative sales amount are Renheng land (- 7.8%), COFCO Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) (- 12.3%), Beijing Capital Development Co.Ltd(600376) (- 15.8%), Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) (- 17.4%) and MediaTek group (- 19.9%).
The cumulative average price of top 10 real estate enterprises decreased more than that of the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative average sales price of the top 10 real estate enterprises has increased year-on-year in the same month, only China Resources Land (6.9%) and Longhu group (0.9%), while other real estate enterprises have decreased year-on-year. Greentown China, rongchuang China and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) were double-digit negative growth, with declines of 27%, 14.5% and 13.3% respectively. CNOOC real estate, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke, country garden, Gemdale Corporation(600383) showed single digit negative growth, with declines of 8.9%, 8.6%, 5.0%, 3.4% and 1.9% respectively.
New houses continue to weaken, second-hand houses improve, and the land is still under pressure
The new housing market traded 4.86 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 44.49%, down 1.23 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 142.17 million square meters, the first-line and second-line de urbanization accelerated, and the third-line and below de urbanization slowed down. The second-hand housing market traded 1.54 million square meters this week, with a monthly year-on-year increase of – 35.89%, an improvement of 1.81 PCT compared with the previous month. The land market traded 15.06 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.36%; The total turnover was 30.1 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 65.93%; The national average premium rate was + 5.14%, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year rate of -12.10pct.
This week, the Shenwan real estate index was + 10.82%, up 6.98pct from last week, ranking 1 / 31, ahead of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 8.39pct. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was + 2.07%, up 3.32pct from last week, ranking 7 / 11 higher, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 0.89pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 3.49%, up 6.44pct from last week.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
