Market review: affected by the epidemic situation and the international situation and other factors, the auto sector continued to adjust this week. This week (3.28-4.1), the overall SW automobile sector was -0.55%, ranking 26 / 31. SW passenger car sector + 1.47%, SW commercial vehicle + 0.26%, SW auto parts - 1.63%, SW Auto Service - 1.39%, SW motorcycle and others - 1.94%. From the perspective of valuation level, the overall PE of SW auto sector is callback to 34.8 times, which is 58.9% of the past five years, and the PE of SW auto parts sub sector is 34.8 times, which is 40.3% of the past five years.
Current situation of the industry: from March 21 to 27, 408000 passenger cars were wholesale, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, a month-on-week increase of 38% and a decrease of 30% over the same period last month; The retail sales volume was 274000, a year-on-year decrease of 28%, an increase of 12% over last week and a decrease of 46% over the same period last month. Steel, aluminum, copper and other raw materials and freight prices are still high.
The supply and demand of the industry is suppressed, waiting for the improvement of the overall environment. Supply side: Russia and Ukraine have made repeated progress, and the supply of chips, harnesses and other parts is still insufficient; Many Chinese factories such as Volkswagen, BMW, Tesla and anbofu have stopped production in cooperation with the requirements of prevention and control. The production and logistics efficiency of companies that have not stopped production have also been impacted to varying degrees, the cost of raw materials is still high, and there is great pressure on the operation of the industrial chain. Demand side: the delivery cycle of orders ranges from 1 to 3 months. Considering the suppression of supply, the cycle is expected to be extended. The recent price rise of models has not stopped, superimposing the disturbance of the epidemic on consumption, and the terminal demand has also been affected to a certain extent. Data: the production and sales data in March are relatively poor. The inventory early warning index of auto dealers is 63.6%, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.1pct. At present, the impact will last until April, waiting for the improvement of the overall environment.
Investment suggestion: Although the market is affected by short-term factors, automobile electrification and intellectualization are still the general trend of the industry. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to three main lines: electrification & lightweight: the boom of new energy demand is determined, and the penetration rate continues to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Byd Company Limited(002594) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , etc; Intellectualization: intelligent cockpit and intelligent driving are accelerated, and the intelligent configuration of new cars is continuously improved. It is suggested to pay attention to: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , etc; Improvement of core shortage: traditional automobile enterprises are greatly impacted by core shortage. With the improvement of supply, enterprise operation is expected to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely motor. At the current time point, the business situation of the enterprise in the first quarter is gradually clear. It is suggested to select the subject with strong performance certainty in the main line. It is suggested to pay attention to: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
Risk tip: the industry's terminal sales are less than expected, the manufacturer's R & D or new car release progress is less than expected, the upstream raw material supply is insufficient or the price rise leads to the decline of industry profits, etc.
