Key investment points:
The concentration of brands and models continued to improve. Compared with last December, in February 2022, new energy vehicle enterprises Cr5 increased by 7.4pct and CR10 increased by 5.6pct; The new energy model Cr5 increased by 3.8pct and CR10 increased by 6.8pct. We believe that this is related to the impact of the collective price rise of new energy vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, various auto enterprises have successively raised the price of their new energy vehicles to cope with the pressure of rising costs. The increase is generally in the range of 5% – 15%, and the market share of leading auto enterprises has further increased. At present, the delivery cycle of Tesla Model3 and modely is further extended to 20-24 weeks and 10-14 weeks, and the orders on hand continue to grow Byd Company Limited(002594) 2 months, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 87473, with a total of 180574 from January to February, a year-on-year increase of 490.6%. We believe that the collective price increase will be a stress test and reshuffle of the new energy vehicle market, and the market share will be further concentrated to the leading vehicle enterprises.
In February, the monthly sales of 6 new energy models exceeded 10000. According to the wholesale volume data of the association, Tesla modely, Model3, Byd Company Limited(002594) song DM, Qin plusdm-i, Tang DM and Wuling Hongguang miniev sold more than 10000 vehicles in February. In addition, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han EV, dolphin and Qin plusbev, the ideal monthly sales of one is more than 8000, and the monthly sales of QQ ice cream is more than 6000. In March, Byd Company Limited(002594) destroyer 05, velai et7 and Zhiji L7 were listed, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han DM-I and dm-p were officially released and pre-sale was opened, and Byd Company Limited(002594) seals, Byd Company Limited(002594) frigates 07 and avita 11 entered the product publicity stage. Ideal L9 was officially released, and the launch of heavy new energy models will greatly expand the product matrix and create popular models in batch.
Tesla and Byd Company Limited(002594) ‘s leading edge is magnified. Compared with December last year, Byd Company Limited(002594) accounted for 3 and 2 seats respectively in the top 5 wholesale volume of cars and SUVs in February, and 4 seats respectively in the top 10, with obvious advantages; Tesla Model3 and modely continued to maintain strong strength and won the sales titles of cars and SUVs respectively. In addition, among the top 10 cars, there are still 6 A0 / A00 cars, including Hongguang miniev, Byd Company Limited(002594) dolphin, QQ ice cream, Benben EV, Chery EQ and Euler cat.
The dealer’s inventory coefficient has recovered above the warning line. In 2021, the supply of Q3 auto chips tightened, the wholesale performance continued to be weaker than that of retail, and the inventory coefficient of dealers decreased, which was lower than the warning line for several consecutive months. It began to pick up after reaching the lowest point in September, until it rose to 1.85 in February this year, with a chain comparison of + 0.39, which recovered above the warning line and exceeded the level of the same period last year.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In February 2022, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 21.6%, the automotive industry has changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces has been increasing, and the performance of domestic suppliers of Tesla has generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
2. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM. It is recommended to recommend Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , pay attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk tip: if the overseas epidemic continues to deteriorate, it will affect China’s automobile export; Focus on the risk that the company’s performance is less than expected; The risk that the demand growth is less than expected; Risk of continuous rise in raw material prices and freight; The risk that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is lower than expected.
