Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.19%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 2.43%, the SW nonferrous index fell 1.85%, Comex gold fell 0.53% and silver fell 3.77%. LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin prices of major industrial metals changed by – 5.10%, – 0.07%, 6.15%, 3.39%, – 6.34% and 4.04% month on month respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the main metal inventory changed by – 6.21%, 16.59%, – 1.88%, 0.00%, – 0.73% and – 14.71% month on month respectively.
Industrial metals: limited supply and demand in China, high global energy prices support prices, and industrial metal prices operate at a high level. Core view: epidemic control affects logistics, supply and demand are limited, and high energy prices support the high price of industrial metals under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In terms of copper, under the background of high global inflation, copper prices have been supported; Superimposed epidemic control affects logistics, supply is limited, and low inventory at the supply side supports copper prices. In terms of aluminum, European energy prices fluctuate at a high level, and enterprises are under great pressure to reduce production; The pattern of strong external and weak internal aluminum prices continues, and the export demand is strong. The epidemic will cause the mismatch of supply and demand in the region, and the aluminum price will be supported. Focusing on the focus of the following focus: followingthe Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: the price of Q2 lithium concentrate guided by allkem is US $5000 / ton, and the cost of lithium salt rises sharply, supporting the high price of lithium. Core view: the supply of lithium carbonate increases, the supply of electric cobalt is low, the order of downstream cathode materials decreases, 3C electronics enters the off-season, the demand weakens, and the price of lithium and cobalt fluctuates. In terms of lithium, the supply side: the maintenance of lithium hydroxide manufacturer has not been fully restored, and the supply is low; According to allkem’s guidance, the price of Q2 lithium concentrate is expected to rise to US $5000 / ton, and the lithium price is supported. On the demand side, the overall positive material order weakened slightly in April, and 3C electronics entered the off-season. In terms of cobalt, the inventory of electric cobalt is still tight, but the downstream is affected by the epidemic, the procurement is cautious, the demand is weak, and the cobalt price or shock is dominated by the reduction of both supply and demand. In terms of nickel, the nickel price has not been completely stable. Although there are differences in psychological prices between upstream and downstream, spot transactions are still weak, and the nickel price will gradually stabilize in the future. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, and inflation drives gold prices upward. Core view: the core PCE price index of the United States rose by 5.4% year-on-year in February, and inflation remained high, adding that the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and gold may still have the upper action force. On Thursday, the United States released the core PCE price index for February, up 5.4% year-on-year, higher than 5.2% in January, and inflation remains high. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, and the United States said it would provide $300 million in security assistance to Ukraine, exacerbating tensions. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Risk warning: demand is less than expected, supply is released more than expected, policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk
