The real estate chain has been in the bottom area and attaches importance to the recent catalysis: in Q2, we are optimistic about the real estate chain. We have four reasons: first, the consumption of building materials and cement focuses on the marginal change of performance. After the interference of the epidemic, the demand superposition + steady growth policy was implemented from March to April, and the improvement of fundamentals is expected to accelerate; Second, the cost side pressure has been fully recognized, and price increases have been hedged in waterproof, coating, cement and other industries; Third, the provision of big b-end mainly affects the annual report (see the performance forecast at the end of February). The real estate policy first benefits the sales data, and the confidence of the industrial chain is expected to pick up. At the same time, the leading building materials company will develop the distribution / small B model and explore new growth points of the second curve; Fourth, the growth rate of real estate sales, commencement and construction in 2021 is high before and low after, and the Q1 base is high.
Recently, there have been many catalysis in the real estate industry. We believe that different from September to November 2021, the background of this catalysis is the pressure of China's economic situation, the continuous downturn of China's real estate sales data and international geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, the recent real estate policy is characterized by falling to the essence, accelerating effectiveness and frequent occurrence in many places. On April 3, China real estate news published "seeking truth from facts and taking the initiative as an important spirit to implement the virtuous circle of Central real estate". On April 2, Quzhou became the first city to cancel the purchase restriction. Qinhuangdao was the first city in Hebei to completely abolish the real estate purchase restriction policy. Mianyang introduced a series of new house purchase policies (such as improving the use efficiency of pre-sale funds, exploring the monetization of collection and resettlement, etc.).
The large coverage of the real estate chain and wide coverage area are the cornerstone of economic stability: according to the statistics of the construction industry association, the number of construction employees in 2021 was 52.83 million, accounting for about 7% of the overall proportion (the caliber may be poor), and the total contribution rate of real estate + construction industry to GDP in 2021 was about 14%. The real estate chain covers real estate (real estate enterprises, intermediaries, construction, supervision and logistics), upstream materials (building materials, construction and light industry), downstream services (building materials, light industry and property), and radiates to catering, finance and other industries. At the same time, there are real estate chains in all provinces and regions regardless of regions.
Short term price rise hedges costs, medium and long-term concentration increases, and the second curve supports growth: on the one hand, since March, Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Nippon and other enterprises have issued price raising letters to hedge raw material pressure, such as average price of road asphalt in the first quarter + 20%, month on month + 8%, average value of natural gas (LNG) index in the first quarter + 60%, month on month + 3%; On the other hand, the tail enterprises have weak pressure resistance and the rapid expansion of leading new businesses. For example, in Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) 2021, other businesses accounted for 6.4%, with a growth rate of 81%, and Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) "concrete + aggregate" accounted for 16%, with a growth rate of about 70%.
The small cycle of real estate is expected to pick up, and the consumption of building materials, cement and water reducer have both valuation and performance flexibility: the small cycle of real estate is expected to pick up, and the sales, commencement, construction and completion data are stable and improved. In 2022, the dynamic PE of the elastic leader of consumer building materials is generally 10-15x, the core leader is 20-25x, and the core leader of cement is about 6.5x. We suggest paying attention to ① valuation and repair space; ② It's a space to make a profit, a space to repair a space, a key recommendation, a core tap + an elastic combination, the core tap ''s signature [ ' Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 372 ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ] from the Perspective of dividend yield.
Risk tip: real estate regulation continues to be tightened; The price fluctuation of raw materials and fuels is less than expected; Weather change; The risk of recurrent outbreaks.
