Review of retail market:
In the past week (five trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index increased by 2.19% and 1.29% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index increased by 1.69%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and outperforming the Shenzhen composite index. Since 2022 (59 trading days), the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen component index have increased by – 9.81% and – 17.70% respectively, and the commercial retail (CITIC) index has increased by – 8.30%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index.
In the past week, the trade and retail industry increased by 1.69%, ranking 14th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. In the past week, 21 of the 29 CITIC first-class industries rose. The top three industries were real estate, building materials and catering tourism, with an increase of 10.63%, 5.70% and 5.15% respectively. Since 2022, the trade and retail industry has increased by – 8.30%, ranking 11th among the 29 CITIC first-class industries. Since 2022, three of the 29 CITIC first-class industries have risen. The top three industries are coal, real estate and banking, with increases of 23.02%, 9.70% and 3.65% respectively.
In the past week, the top three sub industries in the retail sector were professional markets, supermarkets and trade, with an increase of 3.31%, 2.92% and 2.81% respectively. Since 2022, among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top three sub industries are professional markets, trade and supermarkets, with increases of – 0.33%, – 2.78% and – 5.55% respectively.
In the past week, 66 of the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021) rose, one company was flat and 26 companies fell. In the past week, the top three companies were Fujian Sanmu Group Co.Ltd(000632) , China National Complete Plant Import And Export Co.Ltd(000151) and Nanning Department Store Co.Ltd(600712) , with an increase of 16.63%, 16.25% and 13.51% respectively. Since 2022, among the 93 major listed companies in the retail industry (excluding the first listed companies in 2021), 47 companies have increased, one company has remained unchanged and 45 companies have decreased. Since 2022, the top three companies are Beijing Cuiwei Tower Co.Ltd(603123) , Renrenle Commercial Group Co.Ltd(002336) and Shenyang Cuihua Gold And Silver Jewelry Co.Ltd(002731) , with an increase of 142.58%, 42.12% and 38.83% respectively.
Retail industry investment strategy:
Since 2022, retail stocks have outperformed the market as a whole, and the recent volatility of retail stock prices has intensified. We believe that it is mainly due to the repeated epidemic that offline retail is damaged in some areas, and the market is worried about this. However, in the long run, we believe that the epidemic will be gradually controlled. In addition, the current valuation of the retail sector is at the bottom of history. From the perspective of long-term investment, it is already in the investable range. We suggest that investors pay attention to the performance of the first quarter report of 2022 and lay out some sub industries with better track layout in advance, less affected by the epidemic and more stable performance in the first quarter. Suggestions for next week: Chongqing Department Store Co.Ltd(600729) , Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) , Shanghai Bailian Group Co.Ltd(600827) , Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) .
Risk analysis:
The growth rate of consumer demand did not meet expectations. The post real estate cycle affected the income growth of some sub industries, and the impact of channel reform on the existing business model was higher than expected.
