From January to March, the operating sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 47.0% year-on-year. According to the ranking data of sales performance from January to March 2022 released by Kerry, the sales amount of top 100 real estate enterprises was 143819 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 47.0%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared with that from January to February; The sales amount of equity caliber was 113097 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 48.6%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points compared with January February, and the equity ratio was 78.6%.
The year-on-year growth rate and threshold of the cumulative sales amount of each echelon from January to March decreased significantly, and the waist real estate enterprises decreased the most. In terms of sales scale, from January to March 2022, the top 10 real estate enterprises realized a sales amount of 632.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%; Top11-20 real estate enterprises realized a sales amount of 237.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.7%. In terms of threshold, the threshold of the top 10 decreased from 60.8 billion yuan to 33.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45.2%, which is the smallest decline among all echelons; The threshold of the top 20 decreased from 39.69 billion yuan to 18.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%.
In terms of leading companies, the monthly sales in March increased month on month, but maintained a decline year-on-year, with only one top 20 growing positively year-on-year. From the perspective of sales amount of single month trading in March, country garden has the highest sales amount of 38.57 billion yuan, followed by Vanke Real estate, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , rongchuang China and Greentown China, with sales amounts of 39.36 billion yuan, 36.28 billion yuan, 20.9 billion yuan and 20.8 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of monthly sales volume growth, Renheng land had the best year-on-year performance, with a year-on-year increase of 13.5%, followed by Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) -14.8%, China Resources Land – 17.6%, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) -19.0% and Greentown China – 22.8%. Longguang group, Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) , Midea real estate had the worst performance.
There are three main reasons for the cold sales: (1) the industry is still in a relatively difficult time. Last year’s “three red lines”, loan concentration, pre-sale fund supervision and other policies affected liquidity; The “two concentration” policy at the land supply side disrupted the turnover rhythm of real estate enterprises. Although many ministries and commissions have recently stressed the resolution of real estate risks, and the Ministry of finance has made it clear that this year does not have the conditions to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform, at present, the strength of financing side policies is limited, some real estate enterprises, especially private enterprises, benefit from policies to a limited extent, and the cash flow situation is still under pressure; (2) Affected by the epidemic, the real estate market with strong demand in Shanghai, Shenzhen and surrounding cities fell into a freezing point, superimposed with a high base in the same period last year, affecting the national sales data; (3) Although recently, under the background of “implementing policies for cities”, many cities across the country have relaxed the housing demand side policy, the strength is still insufficient. At the same time, only a few second tier core cities have loosened the “four restrictions” policy, such as Zhengzhou and Harbin. The cities with relaxed policies are mainly concentrated in the third and fourth tier. The overall purchasing power of these regions is weak, and the marginal easing of the policy has a weak boost to their sales.
Investment suggestion: the year-on-year decline in sales is still expanding, and the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, so as to maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We judge that the strength of this round of policies is still insufficient. We expect more policies to be good in the way, mainly in improving the capital and demand side of enterprises. We believe that “the policy continues to be favorable – the industry fundamentals are bottomed out and are expected to recover later – the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and the gross profit margin of land acquisition is repaired” is the main logic of 2022, which will achieve three-level resonance upward in fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. Suggestions to focus on real estate companies include: a share of the ” Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 48′ \ H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tip: the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, sales exceeded expectations, and policy relaxation was less than expected.
