The purchase and sale restrictions in Quzhou, Zhejiang are relaxed, and those in Qinhuangdao, Hebei are relaxed. On April 1, Quzhou City, Zhejiang Province issued the notice on promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of urban real estate industry. Restriction: non registered residence households, individual businesses and enterprises invested or held by natural persons are considered to be the same as the household purchase policies implemented by the registered residence in this Municipality. Restriction on sale: after the issuance of this notice, the sale of new commercial houses on newly transferred plots in the urban area and new commercial houses with an area of 144 square meters and above that have not been signed online in the transferred plots will not be restricted, except as specially agreed in the land transfer announcement. On the same day, according to Shanghai Securities News, Hebei Qinhuangdao Municipal People’s government recently issued a notice on Abolishing the opinions of Qinhuangdao Municipal People’s Government on strengthening the regulation of the real estate market and the notice of Qinhuangdao Municipal People’s Government on Further Strengthening the regulation of the real estate market. We previously judged that the foothold of the current round of administrative policies may be the monetary side (new loans) and local policies (such as the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in Zhengzhou and the re mention of monetized resettlement). At present, the relaxation of the “four restrictions” policy in Zhengzhou, Harbin, Quzhou, Qinhuangdao and other places has further verified our judgment. It is expected that more second and third tier cities with sales pressure will follow up in the future. Due to the city’s implementation of policies, the “four restrictions” space of purchase, loan, sale and price restrictions will be gradually opened. In March, the sales decline of the top 100 real estate enterprises further expanded, and it is expected that the follow-up real estate policy will continue to relax and intensify.
Market review: the increase ranks first in all industries, leading the market by 8.20 percentage points. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 10.6%, 8.20 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking first among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 116 stocks rose this week, an increase of 12 over last week and 25 stocks fell. (unless otherwise specified, this week in the report refers to the week of 3.26-4.1).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 3.263 million square meters, an increase of 17.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 43.6% (52% last week). Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 356000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 47.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 55.9%; The second tier cities in the sample were 2.119 million m3, 43.0% month on month and – 34.5% year on year; The sample third tier cities were 788000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 26.8% and a year-on-year ratio of – 54.8%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1043000 square meters, an increase of 2.2% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 293000 square meters, a month on month increase of – 20.7%; The sample of second tier cities is 610000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 21.0%; The third tier cities in the sample are 140000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of – 4.9%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 11.978 million m3, with a year-on-year change of – 37.0%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 3.597 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 42.3%; The sample of second tier cities was 6.82 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 32.0%; The sample of third tier cities was 1.561 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 32.0%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 13 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (3.28-4.3), down 6 month on month; The total issuance scale is 14.94 billion yuan, the total repayment amount is 11.002 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is 3.938 billion yuan. The bond interest rates of Xiamen residential (- 29BP), Yujiang beizui (- 123bp) and Guangdong Pearl River (- 98bp) decreased compared with the comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestions: local policies continue to relax, and more cities are expected to follow up in the future to maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
