Key investment points:
Market review: from March 28 to April 1, 2022, CITIC consumer service industry index rose by 5.15% as a whole, ranking third among all CITIC primary industry indexes, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by about 2.72 percentage points in the same period. Among the segments of CITIC’s consumer service industry, comprehensive services, hotel catering, tourism and leisure and education sectors rose or fell by 2.06%, 6.19%, 6.25% and 0.58% respectively. Among them, tourism and leisure and hotel catering sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index. There were 41 listed companies with positive earnings in the industry, and the top five were Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) , Dark Horse Technology Group Co.Ltd(300688) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) , up 19.85%, 17.92%, 13.14%, 12.04% and 10.97% respectively. There are 12 listed companies that have achieved negative returns, among which the top five listed companies are Hainan Dadonghai Tourism Centre (Holdings) Co.Ltd(000613) , Shanghai Xinnanyang Only Education & Technology Co.Ltd(600661) , Zhejiang Meorient Commerce & Exhibition Inc(300795) , China United Travel Co.Ltd(600358) , Tempus Global Business Service Group Holding Ltd(300178) , with increases and decreases of – 2.36%, – 3.45%, – 7.36%, – 7.72% and – 7.97% respectively. As of April 1, 2022, the overall PE (TTM, overall method) of CITIC’s consumer service industry was about 39.35 times, a sharp rise over last week and 46.61 times lower than the average valuation of the industry since 2016. The PE (TTM) of tourism and leisure, hotel catering, education and comprehensive service sectors are 32.01 times, 111.80 times, 42.81 times and 54.26 times respectively.
Industry operation data: as of April 1, 2022, the vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people in China has reached 226.48 doses, the cumulative vaccination volume of covid-19 vaccine has reached 3.277 billion doses, and the average covid-19 vaccination volume in seven days is about 3.8964 million doses. The total amount of covid-19 vaccination per 100 people in the world reached 143.39 doses, of which the complete vaccination rate of covid-19 vaccine per 100 people reached 57.97%, and the daily covid-19 vaccination volume reached 186999 million doses.
Key industry news: (1) the Ministry of culture and tourism held a regular press conference in the first quarter of 2022, saying that the “circuit breaker” mechanism of inter provincial tourism operation will be strictly implemented, and the inbound and outbound team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business of travel agencies and online tourism enterprises will not be resumed for the time being. (2) Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the China Center for Disease Control and prevention, said that during the Qingming Festival, it is not recommended to go out for outings and outings in areas with epidemic diseases. (3) CDF Sanya international duty free city phase I and phase II will be temporarily closed from 13:00 on April 2, and the time of resumption of business will be notified separately.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. This week, the situation of scattered epidemic in China was severe. In March, 100000 cases were diagnosed in China. The Ministry of culture and tourism made it clear that entry-exit team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business would not be resumed for the time being. Considering the recent small-scale rebound in the number of new cases in China, the follow-up epidemic prevention policy may be tightened, the consumer service industry will be under pressure in the short term, and the expectation of epidemic control in the long term is relatively uncertain. It is suggested to pay attention to the key scenic spot companies Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) ( Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) ), Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ( Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) ), and the hotel leaders Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ( Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ), Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ( Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ), which are expected to benefit from the relief and tax reduction policies.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Changes in industrial policies; The promotion of relevant policies is less than expected; Repeated outbreaks and other risks.
