Industry trends:
Among the 101 chemical varieties tracked by the average price this week, the prices of 46 varieties rose, 30 varieties fell and 25 varieties remained stable. The top five varieties are urea (Baltic Sea small grain package), nitric acid, NYMEX natural gas, PP and sulfur; The top five varieties of decline were methylcyclosiloxane, adipic acid, WTI crude oil, dichloromethane and metal silicon.
WTI crude oil closed at US $100.3/barrel this week, and the closing price fell by 11.96% this week; Brent crude oil closed at US $107.91/barrel, closing down 10.56% this week. The geopolitical situation eased this week. The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release oil reserves on a large scale with the United States. The Chinese epidemic has repeatedly affected the expectation of crude oil demand, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly. This week, the crude oil export of CPC Caspian oil pipeline partially resumed, the EU has not reached a consensus on the way of energy sanctions against Russia, the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine is still advancing, husai armed forces proposed a truce, and the concerns of crude oil suppliers have been alleviated. However, according to EIA data, as of March 18, the change of U.S. crude oil inventory actually announced a decrease of 2.508 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 750000 barrels. OPEC + still has no further production increase plan, and the actual supply of crude oil has not increased significantly. In the future, the Russian Ministry of defense confirmed on April 1 that the Ukrainian army attacked Russian local oil facilities, and Japan and Germany refused to use rubles to settle Russian natural gas. It is expected that oil and gas prices will still fluctuate at a high level.
The price of polymerized MDI rebounded this week, and the polymerized MDI (East China) closed at 19600 yuan / ton, with an average weekly price increase of 3.34%; Pure MDI (East China) closed at 22300 yuan / ton, with a weekly average price decrease of 2.13%; TDI (East China) closed at 19000 yuan / ton, with a weekly average price decrease of 0.89%. Affected by the epidemic, the transportation of MDI sources in Shanghai was blocked, and BASF in the United States had force majeure due to equipment failure. It is estimated that the maintenance will take three weeks. A device in South Korea will be stored in the maintenance plan from May to June, and a device in Japan will be stored in the maintenance plan from April to May. The short-term supply is tight. In terms of demand, the export volume of aggregate / pure MDI decreased significantly in February, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.3% / 13.3%. In the future, although the demand side of MDI is expected to weaken, the epidemic and oil and gas prices may continue to affect the commencement of enterprises. According to Tiantian chemical network news, BASF said on April 1 that if the natural gas supplied to Ludwigshafen base in Germany is reduced to less than half of the current demand, the operation of the world’s largest integrated chemical production base will be completely stopped, and the MDI price may still operate at a high level.
This week, the prices of PVC and liquid alkali increased. PVC (East China calcium carbide method) closed at 9250 yuan / ton, and the weekly average price increased by 2.1%; Ionic membrane caustic soda (30% to 100%) closed at 4856.7 yuan / ton, with the weekly average price rising by 3.6%. This week, the load of some liquid alkali manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased due to the epidemic. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of liquid alkali in China was about 77.25% from March 25 to March 31, with a month on month decrease of 0.7%; After entering April, more than ten liquid alkali manufacturers such as Jiangsu Anbang, Shenma development and Leshan Fuhua have maintenance plans, and the operating rate may continue to decline. In terms of PVC, affected by the favorable policies of real estate, the demand is expected to pick up. With the support of high coal prices, it is expected that the prices of PVC and liquid alkali still have some room to rise.
Investment suggestions:
This week’s view
Cyclical industries: crude oil runs at a high level and the price transmission continues. As of April 1, 2022, the average monthly price of 68% of the tracked products has increased month on month; The average monthly price of 24% of products fell month on month; In addition, the price of 8% products was flat. As of April 1, 2022, the monthly average price of WTI crude oil increased by 17.3% month on month, and the monthly average price of Brent crude oil increased by 18.8% month on month. Industry data: the PPI index of the chemical industry in February 2022 was 112.6, down 0.88% from January 2022. In terms of policy, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system was released. The plan pointed out that under the background of more secure and powerful energy security, the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39% by 2025. The medium and long-term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035) was released, and the top-level design of hydrogen energy industry chain was gradually implemented. The raw materials fluctuated sharply and are optimistic about the leading companies in the integrated industry. Especially in the context of industrial upgrading and concentration improvement under the background of carbon neutrality, leading companies have strong anti risk ability and obvious advantages.
Growth companies: the rise of lithium carbonate slowed down. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals network, as of April 1, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate closed at 502500 yuan / ton, down about 0.1% from last week. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the State Administration of market supervision organized and held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries on March 16 and March 17, pointing out that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, and jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price. In terms of semiconductor materials, according to the latest semi report data, the global semiconductor material market revenue was about US $64.3 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, reaching a new high. Among them, the revenue of China’s semiconductor material market was about US $11.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.9%.
Investment suggestion: the chemical industry chain is long, the raw materials fluctuate violently, the downstream price transmission lags behind, and the supply and demand of different products determine different transmission degrees. Some products and sub industries may face poor transmission and loss of profits. In the selection of sub industries, it focuses on integration and high view. From the perspective of sub industry prosperity, upstream petrochemical refining, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) related agrochemicals, infrastructure related chemicals, semiconductor materials and new energy materials are expected to maintain a high prosperity. Recommended shares: followinga series of recommended shares: followinga Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) , etc., pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , etc.
Month: 0024 shares:
Risk tips
1) large fluctuations in oil prices caused by changes in geopolitical factors; 2) The global epidemic situation has changed.
