Core view of this week: all localities continue to reduce the down payment ratio and loan interest rate, Fuzhou relax purchase restrictions, and the favorable policies are transmitted to second tier cities. The decline in the transaction area of new houses narrowed this week, and the recovery trend was transmitted from the first line to the second line. The overall second-hand housing market has not improved significantly. The decline of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities has narrowed, the price has decreased month on month, and the price in first tier cities has increased. In terms of land, the supply increased this week, the demand decreased, the supply-demand ratio increased significantly, and the premium rate increased to a certain extent. This week, the total amount of bonds issued increased, the debt repayment decreased, the net financing amount returned to positive, and the scale of trust issuance decreased significantly. On the whole, the warming trend is limited due to the impact of the epidemic, and it is expected that there will be signs of warming in second tier cities.
Key policy analysis: on March 30, 2021, Fuzhou real estate trading center reported that the purchase restriction policy in Fuzhou had been liberalized to a certain extent. For non five urban households registered residence (including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in Fuzhou five cities, no need to provide nearly two years, 12 months of medical social security or tax certificate or settlement, you can buy a set of five cities in Fuzhou 144 square meters of ordinary residential, but after the purchase of the housing is still restricted policy impact. In addition, the employees who pay the provident fund directly under the provincial government can handle the “down payment by withdrawing the housing provident fund for the purchase of new commercial housing” according to the process materials, and can use the balance of the provident fund to pay the down payment in Fuzhou. Compared with Zhengzhou, the relaxation of purchase restrictions in Fuzhou targets a wider range of people, and the strength of the policy is greater. The benefits of the policy are being transmitted to higher-level cities, and the relaxation of purchase and sale restrictions has been gradually actively applied. It is expected that the second tier cities with weak performance in the real estate market in the next few years may continue to relax purchase restrictions, such as Zhengzhou and Fuzhou, or relax sales restrictions similar to Harbin, and drive the recovery of the real estate market through strong policies, rather than just reducing interest rates.
One week market review: this week (2022 / 3 / 282022 / 4 / 3), Shenwan real estate rose 10.82%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.63pct, ranking first in all sectors. The Hang Seng real estate construction industry index rose 2.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17pct. The real estate companies with the top three increases this week are: Cccg Real Estate Corporation Limited(000736) (61.14%), Chongqingyukaifaco.Ltd(000514) (56.46%) and Greenland Hong Kong (53.13%). The top three real estate companies that fell this week were Songdu real estate (- 22.82%), Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) (- 20.27%) and huaxiangnian Holdings (- 18.03%). This week (March 28, 2022-april 3, 2022), the Hang Seng property service and management sector rose 4.36%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17pct and the Hang Seng China enterprise index by 0.88pct, ranking third in all sectors. The top three companies that rose this week were Baolong Commerce (15.50%), rongchuang service (13.41%) and first service holding (12.82%). The top three companies that fell this week were jiazhaoye Meimei (- 6.76%), xinchengyue service (- 4.86%) and ya life service (- 4.57%).
Real estate market monitoring: new house transaction data from last Saturday to this Friday (2022 / 3 / 262022 / 4 / 1): the transaction area of new houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities was 2.533 million square meters, with a month on month increase of 9.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 39.7%, and the decline narrowed. The transaction area of second-hand houses in 16 cities was 1.5435 million square meters, an increase of 24% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Last week (March 21, 2022-march 27, 2022), the land supply and construction area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 413134 million square meters, up 11.7% year-on-year and 74% month on month. The land transaction and construction area was 150624 million square meters, down 40.9% year-on-year and 20.04% month on month. The supply increased and the transaction decreased, and the supply-demand ratio rose to 2.74.
Financing of real estate enterprises: this week (2022 / 3 / 282022 / 4 / 2), the total amount of domestic new bonds issued by real estate enterprises was 14.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36% and a month on month increase of 16.53%. In terms of trust issuance, 13 real estate trusts were issued this week, with an issuance scale of 504 million yuan, down 86% month on month. The average annual yield is 7.79% and the average term is 1.92 years.
Risk factors: policy risk: the progress of policy relaxation is less than expected. Market risk: the market recovery of the real estate industry is less than expected, and the epidemic control is less than expected.
