Key investment points:
Market review. As of April 1, 2022, Shenwan nonferrous metals industry fell by 1.97% this week, 4.40 percentage points lower than CSI 300 index and ranked 29th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals industry rose 0.56% this month, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points, ranking 14th among Shenwan 31 industries; Shenwan nonferrous metals sector has fallen 8.08% year to date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.36 percentage points and ranking eighth among Shenwan 31 industries.
As of April 1, 2022, among the sub sectors of nonferrous metals industry this week, precious metals fell 1.24%, industrial metals fell 1.30%, energy metals fell 2.56%, small metals fell 2.65% and new metal materials fell 2.73%.
Zhou’s view on the nonferrous metals industry. Industrial metals. Due to the repeated epidemic, the supply side transportation of copper and aluminum in Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places has been affected to some extent, and the downstream demand of copper and aluminum in China may be restrained. This week, there are signs of easing the situation in Russia and Ukraine, but the tension of shortage of industrial metal supply remains. In addition, low copper and aluminum inventories outside China provide support for copper and aluminum prices, which are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ), Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ( Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) ), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ), Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ). noble metal. On April 1, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 431000 after the quarterly adjustment in March, slightly lower than the expected 490000, the smallest increase since November last year. Data show that the current US job market remains strong and the economic recovery is on track. Earlier, Powell’s more hawkish speech on March 22 also suggested that the interest rate would increase by 50 basis points in May, and the upward trend of gold was under pressure. However, the geopolitical situation and high inflation still provided some support for the price of gold. Energy metals. As of April 1, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 500000 yuan / ton, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 480000 yuan / ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide was 494000 yuan / ton, all slightly lower than last week. At present, the major lithium salt manufacturers are speeding up the construction of lithium salt projects and enhancing their own resource supply rate. The supply of lithium products is expected to be improved to a certain extent. However, the demand in the downstream battery and other fields of the lithium industry chain is strong. It is expected that the supply shortage situation of the lithium industry chain will continue in the next 2-3 years. It is suggested to pay attention to Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ( Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) ), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ), Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ( Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) ).
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected; The monetary policy tightening of the Federal Reserve and the European central bank exceeded expectations; Prices of energy metals and rare earths fell; The downstream demand of nonferrous metals is lower than expected; The impact of the uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine on the fluctuation of industrial metal prices.
