Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic rebounded in many places in China, and the online consumer demand of residents may continue to increase. Ding Dong will increase the stock of vegetables and do a good job in ensuring the supply of vegetables in Pudong, Shanghai. The throughput is expected to be twice that before the epidemic to an average of 700000 pieces a day; Orders for fast food and fresh food in Jingdong home Shanghai increased 2-6 times month on month. In order to ensure sufficient materials for residents, all enterprise platforms have successively taken emergency measures: JD Logistics Intelligent express vehicle provides contactless distribution for Shanghai community; Pinduoduo donated 30 million yuan of guarantee materials for medical personnel in Shanghai; Free anti epidemic packages will be distributed to the products of the company; Baidu health has opened an emergency drug seeking channel in Shanghai; JD health donated covid-19 antigen detection box to front-line logistics employees in Shanghai; Shanghai has guided e-commerce takeout and other platforms to reduce the service fee standard of life service enterprises. The epidemic prevention and control will be tightened, and the business forms such as real-time retail and community group purchase may benefit: the self operated mode of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; O2o platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggested attention: JD group and HEMA (Alibaba).
Traditional retail:
RT Mart Pudong several stores operate normally and make every effort to ensure distribution; The vast majority of HEMA fresh and HEMA x member stores in Shanghai are open normally; Shanghai HEMA store will provide group purchase services in batches from now on Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) logistics launched the “green channel” nationwide to help the delivery of epidemic prevention materials Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) issued six policies to support businesses, including delayed delivery and exemption from assessment. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, residents have hoarded goods, and the sales of fresh, frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Gold jewelry:
Gold jewelry maintained a high outlook. From January to February 2022, the total zero growth rate of gold and silver jewelry society was 63.9 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 19.7 PCT month on month, far exceeding the zero growth rate of the whole society in the same period (6.7%). In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202203.28202204.01), the retail trade (CITIC) index rose 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.75pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranks 15th. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, the top sub industries were home appliances 3C, supermarkets, convenience stores and professional market operation, with an increase of 6.08%, 4.03% and 3.51% respectively. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 84.97, which is 96.09% from small to large since 2012; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 12.47, with a quantile of 53.10%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: Shanghai guides e-commerce takeout and other platforms to reduce the service fee standard of living service enterprises; JD Logistics Intelligent express car provides contactless distribution for Shanghai community; Alipay added the “one-stop epidemic prevention service in Shanghai” to set up the slow disease consultation and dispensing area. Ali tests the “state stick” e-commerce app, focusing on the trend culture of young people; Pinduoduo donated 30 million yuan of guarantee materials for medical personnel in Shanghai; Free anti epidemic packages will be distributed to the products of the company; Jingdong’s vegetable orders in Shanghai increased by more than 4 times month on month; Baidu health has opened an emergency drug seeking channel in Shanghai; JD health donated covid-19 antigen detection box to front-line logistics employees in Shanghai. Traditional retail: RT Mart Pudong stores operate normally and make every effort to ensure distribution; The vast majority of HEMA fresh and HEMA x member stores in Shanghai are open normally; Wal Mart’s Shanghai store will open half an hour in advance and open a special session for vulnerable groups; Jingdong home appliance store S-class experience store opened on No. 001, with a turnover of more than 6 million on the same day Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) logistics launched the “green channel” nationwide to help the delivery of epidemic prevention materials Suning.Com Co.Ltd(002024) issued six policies to support businesses, including delayed delivery and exemption from assessment; Shanghai HEMA store will provide group buying services in batches from now on.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry.
Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages.
Investment main line 3: in the traditional and new retail field, the business form of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to the positive layout of warehouse store business forms such as HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
