Key points
Europe faces a shortage of natural gas supply, and there is a risk of shutdown in BASF's largest production base. On March 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that from April 1, companies from non friendly countries should first open ruble accounts in Russian banks, and then pay for the purchased Russian natural gas through this account. At present, the European Commission and the group of seven have explicitly refused to pay for natural gas in rubles. Europe imports a large amount of natural gas from Russia every year. If Russia's natural gas supply is cut off, Europe will face natural gas shortage. In addition, according to China Chemical News, BASF, the world's largest chemical enterprise, said that if the natural gas supplied to Ludwigshafen base in Germany is reduced to less than half of the current demand, the operation of Ludwigshafen base will be completely stopped. We believe that if there is a shortage of natural gas in Europe, the short-term supply of chemicals in Europe may be seriously limited, which will push up the price of chemicals.
The shortage of natural gas affects the supply of vitamins, and the vitamin industry is expected to usher in a new business cycle. The supply ends of VA and VE are oligopoly, and the global vitamin production enterprises are mainly concentrated in Europe and China. In terms of VA, European production capacity mainly includes 7500 tons of DSM, 6000 tons of BASF and 6 Beijing Quanshi World Online Network Information Co.Ltd(002995) 000 tons, accounting for 50% of the world's total production capacity; In terms of VE (oil), European production capacity mainly includes 30000 tons of DSM and 20000 tons of BASF, accounting for 36.4% of the world's total production capacity. It can be seen that Europe is an important vitamin production base in the world. If the natural gas shortage affects the vitamin production in Europe, it will have a significant impact on the global vitamin supply side, or "ignite" a new round of vitamin business cycle again.
MDI and TDI production capacity in Europe accounts for nearly 30%, and the supply shortage is expected to be good for Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) . According to the data of prospective industry research institute, the global MDI capacity in 2020 was 9.24 million tons / year, of which the European capacity was about 2.63 million tons / year, accounting for 28.5%. In terms of TDI, the global TDI capacity will be about 3.75 million tons / year in 2020, of which 28.2% will come from Europe. If the supply of industrial natural gas in Europe is cut off, resulting in the shutdown / reduction of corresponding chemical plants, nearly 1 / 3 of the world's MDI / TDI supply will be affected. In addition, the export volume of China's MDI and TDI and the proportion of export volume in output increased significantly in 2021. In the future, if there are problems in the supply of MDI and TDI in Europe and the gradual recovery of overseas market demand, the export volume of China's MDI and TDI will be greatly increased, which will be beneficial to leading enterprises in Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Cangzhou Dahua Co.Ltd(600230) and other industries.
Weekly rise and fall of sectors: in the past five trading days, most of the sectors in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed an upward trend. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.19% and the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1.29%. CITIC basic chemical sector rose 0.4%, ranking 20th among all sectors. In the past five trading days, most of the sub sectors of the chemical industry showed a decline. The top five sub sectors were polyurethane (+ 8.6%), nitrogen fertilizer (+ 4.2%), carbon fiber (+ 4.1%), paint, ink and pigment (+ 3.0%) and soda ash (+ 2.9%).
Investment suggestions: (1) the upstream oil and gas sector is suggested to pay attention to Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , CNOOC, Enn Natural Gas Co.Ltd(600803) and other oil service targets. (2) White horse, the leader of undervalued chemical industry: it is suggested to pay attention to ① three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; ② Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; ③ Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; ④ Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . (3) Plate: sector sector of new material sector: suggestions and concerns: sector sector sector: sector sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: sector of sector: the following concerns: ① semiconductor materials: the Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) ; ② Wind power materials: carbon fiber, polyether amine, matrix resin, interlayer materials, structural adhesive and other related enterprises; ③ Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, lithium battery diaphragm, phosphorus chemical industry, fluorine chemical industry and other related enterprises; ④ Photovoltaic materials: upstream silicon materials, EVA, soda ash and other related enterprises; ⑤ OLED industry chain: Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Xi'An Manareco New Materials Co.Ltd(688550) , Jilin Oled Material Tech Co.Ltd(688378) , Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) . (4) Traditional cycle sector: it is suggested to pay attention to relevant targets in the fields of pesticides, coal chemical industry, urea, dyes, vitamins, chlor alkali, etc.
Risk analysis: the risk of rapid decline and high oil price; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
