Core conclusion
Trading stagflation. The market trading stagflation environment needs to constantly switch between inflation and recession. Inflation needs to buy upstream resources and recession needs to buy optional consumption. What can give consideration to both is chemical fertilizer, especially phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer. Phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer have strong resource attributes at the mining end, while the demand end is closely related to grain prices, both offensive and defensive. At present, Southeast Asia potash fertilizer is 750 US dollars / ton, up + 15.4% from the previous month; Monoammonium phosphate (55% bulk FOB in Morocco) US $1266 / ton, up + 40.7% from the previous month; Urea (Baltic bulk) 830 US dollars / ton, up + 46.9% from the previous month. The price difference of monoammonium phosphate outside China has exceeded 3500 yuan / ton. After the peak demand season in China, China’s simple fertilizer is expected to increase profits through export, and the performance of relevant enterprises has obvious flexibility. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) .
Stabilizing the economy: adhering to the policy of clearing the epidemic situation unswervingly, the pressure on China’s economic growth has increased, and the real estate chain is expected to relax. The market has reflected the real estate companies for some time. We judge that it is expected to further extend to the real estate related industrial chain in the future. The chemical industry suggests paying attention to: pure alkali ( Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) , Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Hubei Shuanghuan), chlor alkali ( Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) ) Titanium dioxide (longmang Baili) and other industry companies.
Electricity price arbitrage: oil and gas prices have risen sharply, and overseas electricity prices have continued to rise to 2-3 yuan / kWh. In contrast, the electricity price of enterprises in eastern China is 6-8 gross / kWh, while the self generation cost of low-cost coal in Western China is only 1-2 gross / kWh. We pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of electricity price difference of high power consumption products per unit output value. According to our screening, the chemicals with high to low power consumption per unit output value are calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus, caustic soda, industrial silicon, synthetic ammonia, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the enterprises with self owned coal, self owned power plants and high power consumption chemicals in the west, Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Xinjiang Tianye Co.Ltd(600075) , etc.
Capacity transfer: under the European energy supply crisis, it is not only necessary to consider the rapid rise of costs, but also to prevent the risk of production reduction caused by the reduction of raw material supply. If the production of chemical plants in Europe is reduced or stopped, China is expected to realize capacity transfer by virtue of the advantages of the industrial chain. Last week, BASF said that if the natural gas supply is less than 50% of the maximum demand, BASF will have to reduce or completely close its base in Ludwigshafen, Germany. It is also the world’s largest integrated chemical production base, with about 39000 employees, covering an area of 10 square kilometers and about 110 production facilities. Ludwigshafen base is also one of the world’s major production bases of VA and VE, with a production capacity of about 12000 tons of VA and 20000 tons of VE, accounting for 26.7% and 13.8% of the world’s total production capacity respectively. If the natural gas supply in Germany continues to be affected, resulting in the production reduction or shutdown of the base, the global supply of vitamin VA and VE is expected to be greatly affected, and the market is expected to rise.
Risk warning: safety accidents affect the commencement; Rapid iteration of technical route; Changes in environmental protection policies.
