Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) ); The titanium dioxide ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 002is the date of the 3535 \ ) etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. It is recommended to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter into large-scale refining and excellent private refining enterprises with C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ); Pay attention to Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products fell, the oil price of core raw materials fell, LPG gas fell, LNG gas rose and coal price fell; C5. The prices of some products of chemical fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry and rubber increased. This week, China’s chemical price index ccpi-1.7%; The price of core raw materials is – 13.5%, imported LPG – 4.9%, domestic LNG + 2.1% and bituminous coal – 18.6%.
On the raw material side, the prices of some products of C5 rose, while the prices of some products of C1, C3, C4 and aromatics fell; On the product side, the prices of some products such as chemical fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry and rubber rose, while the prices of some products such as chemical fiber and polyurethane fell.
Oil prices fell this week, Russian Ukrainian negotiations weakened supply concerns, and the Asian epidemic repeated again.
This week, the settlement price of oil distribution fell from 120.7 to 104.4 US dollars / barrel (down 13.5%), and the settlement price of American oil fell from 113.9 to 99.3 US dollars / barrel (down 12.8%); US commercial crude oil inventories reached 410 million barrels (Mom – 0.8%), and 533 US crude oil wells were drilled (mom + 0.4%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, although the situation between Russia and Ukraine has not yet ended, there has been a new turn in the negotiations, the market’s concern about supply risks has weakened, the operation of the Black Sea CPC oil terminal is resuming without serious impact, and there is still no progress in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the recent Asian epidemic has been repeated again, which has brought some concerns to the demand in the short term. In terms of policy, according to Longzhong information, the Federal Reserve has started the interest rate increase cycle, which is good for the US dollar and bad for oil prices in the long term, but the impact effect is limited in the short term. Geopolitically, according to Longzhong information, the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains the focus of attention, and the risk of sharp oil price fluctuations has not subsided.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: European and American natural gas futures rose as a whole this week, with NBP + 1.28%, TTF + 3.53%, HH + 7.27% and AECO + 1.06%. In terms of spot, HH spot was + 5.98% month on month;
Canada AECO spot chain was + 9.42%, and Europe TTF spot chain was + 16.29%. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 11249 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.01%, the average sales price of terminal was 8341 yuan / ton, and the price difference was + 76 yuan / ton (+ 0.92%).
Inventory tracking: US natural gas inventory was not updated this week. According to EIA data, as of March 18, the US natural gas inventory was 1389 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of – 51 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of – 3.54%, year-on-year ratio of – 20.90%), lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of March 25, the European natural gas inventory was 981.33 billion cubic feet, a month on month increase of + 11 billion cubic feet (a month on month increase of + 1.13%, a year-on-year increase of – 13.07%).
China price: China’s LNG rose slightly this week. As of March 31, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 7751 yuan / ton, up + 2.82% from last week; Consumer prices rose simultaneously. As of March 31, the average price of major LNG consumer places was about 8178 yuan / ton, up + 0.62% from last week. The quotation of LNG terminal is 8839 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.16%.
View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are nitric acid + 15%, caustic soda (32% ionic membrane) + 9%, phosphorus trichloride + 9%, NPG + 6%, anhydrous hydrofluoric acid + 5%, isoprene + 5%, phosphoric acid + 5%, ammonium sulfate + 4%, carbon black + 4%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are liquid chlorine-61%, methyl benzoate-9%, enophenone-8%, diuron-8%, mtbe-8%, acrylic acid-7%, etc.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon – 2%, trichlorosilane + 2%, soda ash (light and heavy), vinyl acetate + 2%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) are equal. Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid + 5%, lithium carbonate (industrial grade is the same, battery grade is the same), iron phosphate + 2%, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) + 1%, lithium hexafluorophosphate – 9%, etc.
The downstream started well, the market supply was tight, and the price of caustic soda rose.
Caustic soda (32% ion-exchange membrane, North China) rose 9.2% to 1125 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, there are new alumina enterprises put into operation in Hebei, which have a good demand for liquid alkali. The flake alkali processing enterprises in Northwest Inner Mongolia have started actively, and the demand for liquid alkali has increased; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, some enterprises in some regions of China have been shut down recently due to covid-19 pneumonia, and the supply has been slightly reduced. The inflow of goods from the periphery of Anhui and Jiangxi is limited. At present, it is difficult to arrive by automobile in Fujian, mostly ship alkali. The supply of liquid alkali in the region is still tight, forming a favorable supply side.
The regional trend is differentiated, the epidemic situation affects the demand, and the high price of phosphorus trichloride is sorted out.
Phosphorus chloride (99%, Jiangsu) rose 9.1% to 12000 yuan / ton on Wednesday. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current price of liquid chlorine in Jiangsu is still high, and the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been continuously reduced recently, weakening the cost support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu, the recent epidemic situation in some parts of East China has a certain impact on logistics and demand; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, phosphorus trichloride will mainly send orders to old customers in the short term.
Sulfuric acid supports the cost, and the epidemic restricts transportation, pushing up the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid.
Anhydrous hydrofluoric acid (East China) rose 5.4% to 10700 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, sulfuric acid (98%, Yangtze River Delta) rose 3.6% to 1450 yuan / ton this week to support the cost; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream refrigerant market has little change, and it is mainly purchased on demand; At the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, due to the impact of public health events, the traffic in some areas is controlled, resulting in limited transportation, forming the support of the supply side.
Raw materials are purchased at a high level, mainly in the downstream, and the price of phosphoric acid rises.
Phosphoric acid (East China) rose 4.5% to 11500 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current price of raw material yellow phosphorus is high, and some phosphoric acid enterprises have less inventory of low-cost raw materials. They just need to purchase high-priced yellow phosphorus to supplement the inventory, and the production cost increases to support the price; On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current downstream just need procurement of phosphoric acid is mainly, and the actual transaction is general; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current market supply has increased slightly.
The demand for procurement is stable, the start-up is relatively low, and the price of ammonium sulfate rises.
Ammonium sulfate (Linyi, Shandong) rose 4.0% to 1810 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s compound fertilizer market continues to operate at a high level, the price of praseodymium and neodymium is down, and the downstream terminal enterprises trade on demand. On the whole, the downstream just needs to enter the market and the procurement is stable; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current overall construction in Shanxi is OK, the shipment in Tangshan, Hebei is blocked, the construction is reduced, the major stability and minor adjustment in Shandong are dominated, and the transportation in Northeast is limited, so the overall construction is relatively low.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
