Zhou's view: since March, the repeated epidemic has increased the downward pressure on the economy, and the market is more expected to relax the policy. Under the background of stable growth, the dilemma reversal of the real estate industry is more sensitive to the policy. Therefore, the recent performance of real estate stocks is strong. We believe that at present, the real estate policy is relaxed step by step in many places, the inflection point of real estate fundamentals is gradually approaching, the trend of low before and high after real estate is gradually emerging, and the real estate chain will gradually benefit from real estate β Up. At the current time point, in the process of gradually reaching the bottom of real estate, it is suggested to choose Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , and the diversified development of leading materials is more promising α Advantages, the industry stabilizes and takes the lead in rebounding; Secondly, focus on the leader Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , which provides one-stop fire service. The logic of expanding categories and increasing market share of the company is similar to that of Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) in 2019. Industrial fire protection can raise the valuation ceiling in the future; At the same time, Zhongfu Shenying, a civil carbon fiber leader, is expected to land on the science and Innovation Board on April 6, with an issue price of 29.33 yuan / share. After listing, the total shares are 900 million shares, corresponding to a total market value of about 26.4 billion yuan (corresponding to 94.7 times the performance in 21 years). The performance in the first quarter of 22 years has more than doubled. With the gradual production of raised funds and the significant increase in China's demand, it will have outstanding growth in the future.
Consumption of building materials: due to the marginal relaxation of urban policies, the inflection point of the real estate industry is gradually approaching. The "two sessions" re mentioned that real estate should be based on urban policies, which coincides with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize quickly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure to the gross profit margin, which provides a new allocation opportunity after the recent adjustment. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); Secondly, there are pipe faucets ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , China Liansu) with excellent business quality, small ceramic tile faucets ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and gypsum boards ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the recovery of demand, and the price rise has been delayed. Recently, due to repeated epidemics in many places, the construction of downstream projects has slowed down, and the demand recovery is less than expected. We believe that the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change, the demand will gradually increase, and the demand will be delayed but will not be absent. The state actively promotes the investment in 102 major infrastructure projects. In the early stage, the investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei and Guangdong will be gradually implemented. At the same time, the real estate will be substantially relaxed in many places due to urban policies, and the real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. With the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation, the subsequent demand is expected to further recover, and the cement price will continue to rise. Under the current background of steady growth, the cement sector with undervalued value and high dividend is still the best choice for defensive counterattack. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the downstream demand recovers slowly and the price is weak. At present, under the influence of repeated epidemics and the tight capital chain of real estate developers, the demand for downstream real estate construction projects recovers slowly and the market operates weakly. It is expected that the demand will further recover after the epidemic situation improves. At the same time, the current downward pressure on the economy is increasing, and the market's expectation of further easing of policies is increasing. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; Recently, the real estate policies of local governments have continued to relax. Due to the effect of urban policy implementation, the real estate may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release. It is optimistic that the volume and price of glass will rise in a new round after the improvement of the epidemic situation. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the price of electronic yarn is weak, and the price of roving remains high and stable. At present, the inventory of roving industry continues to run at a low level, the price remains stable at a high level, and the profitability of enterprises is good; The price of electronic yarn continued to decline, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn G75 fell below about 10000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of electronic cloth price remained about 3.7 yuan / meter, and the electronic yarn operated weakly. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; The installed capacity of wind power will pick up in 2022, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and the demand for high-end products of the company; According to the tracked industrial expansion plan, the new supply in 2022 is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or far exceed expectations; The price of electronic yarn drops rapidly or further squeezes the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises to curb the disorderly expansion of enterprises. The cost advantage of leading enterprises is obvious, and the capacity expansion realizes the advantage of supplementing the price with quantity. (it is suggested to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
