Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses increased this week and that of second-hand houses decreased. This week, the number of new houses sold in 46 cities was 38000, up 28.6% month on month and down 41.9% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 17 large and medium-sized cities was 22000, up 12.8% month on month and down 40.9% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities increased by – 24.9%, + 34.7% and – 33.0% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 35.5%, – 36.1% and – 65.2% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 12000, down – 0.1% month on month and 42.9% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 11000, up 0.6% month on month and down 42.0% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by – 20.7%, + 19.9% and – 15.2% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 51.5%, – 33.3% and – 52.1% respectively.
Compared with last week, the inventory of new houses has no significant change, and the decontamination cycle has increased compared with last week. The number of new houses in stock in 15 cities was 1022000, up 1.6% year-on-year, and the decontamination cycle was 16.5 months, up 0.9% month on month and 64.4% year-on-year; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 557000, with a month on month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The decontamination cycle was 12.1 months, with a month on month increase of 3.5% and a year-on-year increase of 60.5%; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 262000 units, down 0.7% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 11.0 months, up 0.6 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, up 0.7% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 12.9 months, up 0.4 months month on month. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 89000 units, down 0.1% month on month. The deconvolution cycle was 14.6 months, down 0.3 months.
Compared with the previous week, the overall land market increased both in volume and price, and the land premium rate increased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 60, with a month on month increase of 1.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.9%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 3.5 million square meters, an increase of 8.4% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 58.4%; The total land transaction price was 23.7 billion yuan, an increase of 54.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%; The average floor price of residential land traded was 6764 yuan / m2, up 42.1% month on month and 64.3% year-on-year; The premium rate of land for residential buildings in Baicheng was 5.25%, with a month on month increase of 108.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 73.8%.
Investment advice
At present, it is still the logic of poor fundamentals and game policy. The sudden increase of the epidemic has seriously affected the transaction of new houses around the country. There is great pressure on the annual growth target, and the introduction of policies is imminent. This week, we saw obvious signs of loosening the “four limits” regulation in some cities. Fuzhou allowed to use the balance of provident fund (including housing subsidies) account to pay the down payment. This is the fourth time that Fuzhou has loosened the real estate regulation since February. The first three times have lowered the housing loan interest rate, reduced the down payment ratio of provident fund loans and relaxed the purchase restriction. This week, Quzhou, Zhejiang Province issued a document to cancel and loosen the purchase and sale restriction policies at the same time. Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province abolished the previous purchase restriction policy in combination with the current development situation of the real estate market. The third and fourth tier cities with greater pressure on the real estate market took the lead in officially introducing the loose policy of canceling the purchase and sale restrictions. It is expected that more demand side regulation and control will be relaxed in more cities. It is suggested to pay attention to the policy follow-up of some strong second tier cities, such as Chengdu, Xiamen, Wuhan and Hangzhou.
From the perspective of sector investment, we believe that April is still a good allocation window period, and the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthened. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the real estate sector. We suggest paying attention to four main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Vanke A, Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Regional central state-owned enterprises or regional leading private enterprises with high financial report security and stable cash flow: China Construction Development International, Yuexiu real estate, Midea real estate, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) . 3) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 4) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination and accelerated concentration, as well as the recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life, poly property, Zhonghai property and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten
