Core summary
Viewpoint: last week, Fuzhou, Quzhou, Lanzhou, Dongguan and other provincial capitals and core cities in the metropolitan area joined the ranks of relaxing purchase, sale and loan restrictions. The regulation of the real estate market has entered a substantial improvement stage. The first batch of centralized land supply and land auction rules in many cities “give up profits”, increase the real estate price difference and stimulate the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the auction. There are signs of recovery in land auction in some cities. However, the short-term epidemic has repeatedly increased the sales pressure. The monthly sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises fell by more than 50% year-on-year in March. It is expected that the investment attitude of real estate enterprises will remain cautious. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of policies, the real estate sector rose 10.82% last week, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the downward pressure on the industry and the capital side risk of real estate enterprises still exist. Under the background of virtuous circle and “three stabilities”, we believe that the unstable policy of the real estate market continues, and the valuation repair driven by the policy side is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector is mainly concerned about: one is the strong operating and high credit enterprises with relaxed short-term benefit policies and improved gross profit margin at the land acquisition end, which are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , etc; One is the subject matter of policy game elasticity with certain support for Fundamentals, such as Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , etc. The valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the downward pressure of the quarterly and mid-term guidelines of the annual report has been gradually released. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is expected to bring the valuation repair of high-quality property management enterprises, focusing on such services as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) Kerui: the sales pressure of the top 100 is not reduced, and the policy needs to be strengthened urgently; 2) The first batch of centralized land supply in 22 cities has “made profits”, and the local auction in some cities has warmed up; 3) Fuzhou, Lanzhou, Quzhou, Dongguan and Qinhuangdao: the purchase and sale restrictions in many cities have been relaxed, and the real estate market has entered a substantial improvement
Market operation monitoring: 1) transaction: it rebounded month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. Last week (March 26-april 1), 38000 new houses were sold, up 20.1% month on month; 13000 second-hand houses were sold, up 1.2% month on month. In March, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 45% year-on-year, an increase of 15.2pct compared with February. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in February 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 1.7pct to 77.1% month on month. 3) Inventories rebounded month on month and tended to decline in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101.12 million square meters, up 0.1% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) Land: the turnover and premium rate rebounded, and the proportion of the first and second tier increased. With the launch of the first batch of centralized land supply, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng last week was 43.136 million square meters, and the transaction construction area was 16.919 million square meters, up 75.3% and 29.8% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 4.8%, up 2.4pct month on month.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 8.98 billion yuan of domestic bonds were issued last week, a decrease of 6.69 billion yuan month on month; Overseas bond issuance was US $729 million, up US $440 million month on month; The issuance interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 2.3% – 8%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is different from that of the previous time. 2) Trust: last week, collective trust issued 500 million yuan, a month on month decrease of 2.87 billion yuan. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 10.82% last week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (2.43%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 11.08 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 72.4% in recent five years. Last week, the top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north were Financial Street Holdings Co.Ltd(000402) , Youngor Group Co.Ltd(600177) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; The top three real estate enterprises with net capital inflow from the south are China overseas development, country garden service and new town development.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
