Home furnishing: the volume and price of leading enterprises rise together, and the market share will accelerate its growth. The household industry has the characteristics of large market scale and low concentration. The future investment logic mainly lies in the increase of the market share of leading enterprises. In terms of real estate, the margin of short-term real estate policy will be relaxed, and the reasonable housing demand will be guaranteed, which is expected to repair the pessimistic expectation, resulting in the repair of the valuation of the home industry; The long-term stock housing trend will continue to deepen, and the second-hand housing transaction will gradually occupy a dominant position. At the same time, the rapidly expanding real estate since 2007 will gradually enter the renovation cycle, and the demand for home stock housing in the future is worth looking forward to. In the home furnishing industry, customization and soft furniture grew steadily, and the market concentration was scattered; Head home furnishing enterprises are expected to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future, continue to expand channels by virtue of capital advantages, and continue to expand the flow matrix of dealers, online and packaged goods. At the same time, the layout of all categories in the early stage will work together, and the customer unit price of the whole era is expected to continue to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ], [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings].
Papermaking: the pressure on the industry has accelerated, the concentration has increased, and the leading performance of pulp and paper price rise is expected to be flexible. We have been paying attention to the improvement of industry concentration for a long time, and are optimistic about the performance flexibility of the head paper enterprises with sufficient self-sufficient pulp production capacity in this round of pulp and paper price rise in the short term. Waste paper system: driven by destocking, the price of waste yellow paperboard continues to extend downward, and there is a certain pressure for the inventory of box paperboard enterprises to reach a historical high. Superimposed on the limited downstream demand of finished paper, the price of finished paper drops rapidly, and the gross profit margin declines. Pulp and paper system: China’s pulp import dependence is high, and the downstream demand is mainly household paper, white cardboard and double offset paper. The Russian Ukrainian crisis has led to an increase in the uncertainty of China’s short-term pulp supply and an increase in energy prices. The superposition of white cardboard and double offset paper has actively started to support the pulp demand, and the paper pulp price has increased rapidly; Due to the limited demand for finished paper, the price rise is weaker than that of pulp, the gross profit margin continues to decline, and the business pressure of enterprises continues to increase. Special paper: in the short term, the raw materials of special paper are mainly pulp and chemical raw materials. The rise of pulp price supports the continuous rise of special paper price, and the performance flexibility of head enterprises can be expected; From a long-term point of view, the layout of special pulp enterprises continues to expand, and the performance of special pulp enterprises is good in the long run. It is suggested to pay attention to: pulp and paper is the leading [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]; Special paper faucet [ Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) ], [ Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) ], [ Hangzhou Huawang New Material Technology Co.Ltd(605377) ].
Packaging: the market is better controlled, the profit is restored, and the business is vertically expanded and integrated. Paper packaging: benefiting from the trend of environmental protection, the paper packaging industry is expected to expand, but the market concentration is low and needs to be improved; Leading enterprises began to transform from manufacturers to packaging solution providers, and their business achieved vertical development. Plastic packaging: the market scale is growing steadily and the market concentration is low; Ordinary plastic packaging is widely used downstream, with fluctuating demand and fierce competition; The technical barrier of special materials is high, and the leading enterprises can rely on the technical barrier to build a strong moat. Metal packaging: with the rise of raw material prices and the improvement of supply and demand pattern, the price increase of the industry will improve profits; Beverage and liquor are the main downstream applications of metal packaging, and the canning rate of beer is increasing, which is expected to promote the increase of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to: [ Shanghai Ailu Package Co.Ltd(301062) ], [ Org Technology Co.Ltd(002701) ] and [ Shenzhen Yuto Packaging Technology Co.Ltd(002831) ].
E-cigarette: the new regulations of e-cigarette continue to ferment, and the long-term growth is still significant. The latest regulatory policies on e-cigarettes have made adjustments in taste and export. In terms of taste, the regulation prohibits the sale of flavored e-cigarettes other than tobacco taste, which will have an impact on terminal demand in the short term. In the long term, e-cigarettes will return to replace traditional cigarettes. China has the largest group of smokers in the world, and the penetration rate of e-cigarettes is low, so there is still broad space in the future. In terms of export, the regulation has relaxed the export regulations and deleted the requirement that export e-cigarette brands need to obtain monopoly licenses. The e-cigarette policy environment of various countries continues to improve, and the market demand grows steadily. China is the location of the world’s main e-cigarette industry chain, and will realize continuous expansion driven by the growth of overseas e-cigarette market in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: benefiting from the broad growth space of new-type tobacco and relying on advanced atomization technology, it is a leading atomization enterprise [smore international]; [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] Based on the large packaging business, comprehensively layout the new tobacco field and master the core technical resources.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn; Real estate sales and completion data are less than expected; The price of raw materials has risen.
