Key investment points:
Since 2020, the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic has swept the world. By the end of 2020, covid-19 vaccines have been listed one after another outside China, opening a global wave of covid-19 vaccination, but it also has a certain impact on the vaccination of conventional vaccines. For this, we have counted the sales of major vaccine varieties in the world between 2020 and 2021 to see how the epidemic will affect the sales of conventional vaccines, At the same time, we listed HPV vaccine, 13 valent pneumonia vaccine and influenza vaccine, which are three varieties with large sales in the world, for analysis:
HPV vaccine: the demand is extremely strong. With the increase of MSD supply, it has achieved rapid growth. The market performance of MSD Gardasil was amazing. Under the background of worldwide covid-19 vaccination in 2021, the sales revenue was US $5.67 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 44%. The rapid explosion of the product revenue was mainly due to: 1) the overall supply increased significantly in 2021; 2) The demand in international markets such as China's market is still strong. In the Chinese market, some provinces and cities have planned to carry out free HPV vaccination for low-age women, and two domestic two price HPV vaccines have been approved for listing. We believe that HPV vaccines will show explosive growth in China in the next five years. For MSD, the Chinese market has become one of its most important overseas markets. How to maximize commercial benefits in this era, We believe that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) will play a more important role. Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) has cooperated with MSD for more than 10 years and is recognized as one of the vaccine companies with the strongest sales capacity in China. We judge that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) is also expected to achieve rapid growth in performance with the increase of MSD's supply in China in the future. In addition, for Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , its 2-valent HPV vaccine is currently in the rapid and large-scale stage, and 9-valent HPV vaccine is also one of the first varieties to enter phase III in China. We judge that this product is expected to become the first 9-valent HPV vaccine approved for listing in China in the future, and Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) is expected to maintain high growth for a long time.
13 valent pneumonia vaccine: Pfizer enters the bottleneck period, and the domestic 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is carried out in large quantities. Pfizer's 13 valent pneumonia vaccine has entered a bottleneck period since 2016. In 2020, the product achieved a sales revenue of about US $5.8 billion, which is basically the same as that in 2019. In 2021, affected by the wide-scale vaccination and enhanced vaccination of covid-19 vaccine, the sales of the product decreased by about 10%. Considering that the 13 valent pneumonia vaccine has been incorporated into the immunization plan in many countries, the penetration rate of the product in overseas developed countries has reached a high level, and two domestic 13 valent pneumonia vaccines have been approved for listing in the most important emerging Chinese market, it is expected that Pfizer's 13 valent pneumonia vaccine sales will not have much room for growth in the future. In the Chinese market, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) 13 valent pneumonia vaccines were approved to market in 2019 and 2021 respectively. 13 valent pneumonia vaccines are well-known vaccine products among children's parents. We judge that the 13 valent pneumonia vaccines of Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) are expected to achieve rapid growth in recent years.
Influenza vaccine: affected by covid-19 vaccination in 2021, it is expected to recover significantly in 2022. Taking Sanofi influenza vaccine as an example, the sales revenue in 2020 was 2.47 billion euros, with a year-on-year increase of about 38%. The rapid growth was mainly due to the government's vigorous promotion of influenza vaccination during the epidemic period (the mRNA vaccines of biontech and Moderna were approved around the end of 2020). This situation is basically consistent with the situation in China. In 2020, the number of influenza vaccines approved and issued in China was about 57.65 million, The number of batches issued in 2019 increased by about 87% year-on-year. Major influenza vaccine suppliers such as Hualan vaccine sold about 19.42 million tetravalent influenza vaccines in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of about 135%. By 2021, the sales revenue of Sanofi influenza vaccine will reach 2.63 billion euros, with a year-on-year increase of about 6%, mainly due to the impact of covid-19 vaccination in the United States in the fourth quarter. In the Chinese market, since the covid-19 vaccination age was relaxed to over 3 years old in the third quarter, and children, as the mainstream population of influenza vaccination, clashed with covid-19 vaccine products, affecting the sales of influenza vaccines in China. Taking Hualan vaccine as an example, the sales of influenza vaccines in 2021 was about 15.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 28.5%. However, considering that the current epidemic prevention and control will still be the main line, we believe that influenza vaccination is highly necessary, and most of the enhanced vaccination is expected to be completed in the first half of this year, we judge that the sales of influenza vaccine is expected to recover significantly in the second half of this year, and we are optimistic that the performance of companies such as Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) , Hualan vaccine and Jiangsu Gdk Biological Technology Co.Ltd(688670) biology will reverse. (risk warning: the risk of the fourth dose of covid-19 vaccine in the second half of this year)
Other varieties: it is adversely affected by covid-19 vaccination as a whole and is expected to recover gradually in 2022. On the whole, during 2020 and 2021, the sales of most varieties were adversely affected, mainly because the control measures of covid-19 epidemic had certain restrictions on consumers' vaccination of conventional vaccines, and the priority of covid-19 vaccination in 2021 also had a certain squeeze on the vaccination of conventional vaccines. However, in the long run, although we think covid-19 vaccination will become normal, considering that only one shot may be required for enhanced vaccination in the future, compared with the whole course vaccination in 2021, the impact will be much smaller. We expect that the vaccination of conventional vaccine will gradually resume in 2022.
Covid-19 vaccine: focus on the dose of mRNA covid-19 vaccine. Moderna: in 2021, the revenue of covid-19 vaccine was about US $17.7 billion, including US $5.4 billion in sales in the United States, US $12.3 billion in other regions and 807 million in global supply; Pre purchase agreements signed in 2022 are expected to increase to $19 billion, with an additional $3 billion in options. Pfizer: in 2021, Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine recognized revenue of about US $36.78 billion, including US $7.81 billion in sales in the United States and US $28.97 billion in other regions. In 2021, Pfizer supplied about 3 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine worldwide, and it is expected to achieve US $32 billion in revenue in 2022.
Investment recommendation: investment recommendation: Overall, the 2020 epidemic and the 2021 covid-19 vaccination in 2020 and 2021 have had a negative impact on the volume of conventional vaccines. In the long run, the run on conventional vaccines with covid-19 vaccine will gradually weaken in the long run, and the run on conventional vaccines with covid-19 vaccine will gradually weaken in the long run. It's optimistic about the recovery of conventional vaccines in the future. It's good to see the recovery of conventional vaccinations in the future, focusing on the recovery of conventional vaccines, with emphasis on Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) Hualan vaccine, etc.
Risk tip: the risk of intensified market competition, the risk of covid-19 vaccination exceeding expectations, and the risk of reduced vaccination demand.
